Tamay Besiroglu

20, 45 or... Wow.

Full automation, remote work.

Yeah, yeah.

So I think that a lot of people have this intuition that progress has been very fast.

They just look at the trend lines and just extrapolate.

Obviously, it's going to happen in, I don't know, 2027 or 2030 or whatever.

They're just very bullish.

And obviously that's not a thing you can literally do.

Like there isn't like a trend you can literally extrapolate of when do we get the full automation.

Because if you look at the fraction of the economy that is actually automated, it's very, like by AI, it's very small.

So if you just extrapolate that trend, which is something say Robin Hanson likes to do, you're going to say, well, it's going to take centuries or something.

Now, we don't agree with that view.

But I think one way of thinking about this is like,

how many, like, big things are there?

How many core capabilities, competencies are there that the AI systems need to be good at in order to have this very broad economic impact, maybe 10x acceleration in growth or something?

How many things have you gotten...

like how over the past 10 years, 15 years.

And we also have this compute-centric view.

Yeah, but also currently most of it is actually not going towards AI chips.

Even most TSMC capacity currently is going towards mobile phone chips or something like that, right?