Tamay Besiroglu

What do you mean they're almost there?

Like, I don't know.

Like, I can't ask Claude to, like, pick up this cup and, like, put it over there.

Okay, but even for remote work, I can't ask Claude to, like, I think the current computer use systems can't even, like, book a flight properly.

I probably think by the end of this year they're going to be able to do that.

But that's like a very, very, like nobody gets a job where they're paid to like book flights for like, like that's not a task.

But I think that's an important point because a lot of people like look at jobs in the economy and then they're like, oh, like that person, like their job is to just do X. But then,

But then that's not true.

Like that's something they do in their job.

But it's probably, if you look at the fraction of their time on the job that they spend on doing that, it's a very small fraction of what they should do.

It's just this popular conception people have.

Or travel agents, like they just book hotels and flights.

But that's not actually most of their job.

So automating that actually wouldn't

automate their job and it wouldn't have that much of an impact on the economy.

So I think this is actually an important thing, that important worldview difference that separates us from people who are much more bullish because they think like jobs in the economy are much simpler in some sense and they're going to take like much fewer competences to actually fully automate.

Well, I mean, I guess what is the reason for believing that?

I mean, you could have looked at AlphaGo or AlphaGo Zero, AlphaZero.

Those seemed very impressive at the time.

I mean, you're just learning to play this game with no human knowledge.