Ege Erdil

has access to, but China doesn't.

So I think the U.S.

is just like ahead on many dimensions and there's some that…

China is ahead or at least very close.

So I don't think this should cause you to update very strongly in favor of China being a much bigger deal, at least depending on where you start.

Yeah, I mean, I do expect that.

I think there's a question of how useful is this concept for thinking about this transition to a world with much more advanced AI.

And I don't find this like a particularly meaningful or helpful concept.

Like, I think people introduce some of these notions that on the surface seem useful, but then actually when you...

delve into them, it's like very vague and kind of unclear what you're supposed to make of this.

And you have this notion of AGI, which distinguishes from narrow AI in the sense that it's much more general and maybe, you know, can do everything that a human can do on average.

I mean, AI systems have these very jagged profiles of capabilities.

So you have to somehow

take some notion of average capabilities and what exactly does that mean?

It just feels really unclear.

And then you have this notion of ASI, which is AGI in the sense that it's very general, but then it's also better at humans than on every task.

And is this a meaningful concept?

I guess it's coherent.

I think this is not a super useful concept because I prefer just thinking about

what actually happens in the world.