Ege Erdil

And so there's a gap between what people enjoy and like don't seem to be super diminished in terms of marginal utility.

And so there's

a big room, there's a lot of room on just purely the intensive margin of just consuming the things we consume today, but more.

And then there's this maybe much more important dimension along which we will expand, which is this extensive margin of what is the scope of things that you're consuming.

And if you look at something like the Industrial Revolution, that seemed to have been the main dimension along which we kind of expanded to consume more.

There's just – on any kind of sector that you care about, transportation, medicine, entertainment and food, there's just this massive expansion in terms of variety of things that we're able to consume that is enabled by new technology or new trade routes or new methods of producing things.

So that is I think really the key thing that we will see come along with this kind of expansion in consumption.

Yeah.

I mean, like we totally agree with that.

I would say that that's just like a kind of qualitative consideration.

It doesn't.

itself it isn't it isn't itself sufficient to make a prediction about what growth rates are permitted given these bomb effects versus not it's just like a qualitative consideration and then you might need to make additional assumptions to be able to make a quantitative prediction so i think it's a little bit um so the like commissing version of this argument would be if um you did the same thing that we were doing earlier with the software on the singularity argument where we were pointing to

So it has to like quantitatively work out.

And so you actually have to be quantitatively specific about what this objection is supposed to be.

So I think one point that I think is useful to make, our experience talking to economists about this is that they will bring up these kind of more qualitative considerations, whereas the arguments that we make are like make specific quantitative predictions about growth rates.

So for example, you might ask like how fast will the economy double and then we can think about

You know, an H100 does about, there are some estimates of how much computation the human brain does per second, and it's about 1E15 flopper, so it's a bit unclear.

And then it turns out that an H100 roughly does on that order

of computation.

And so you can ask the question of how long does it take for an H100 to pay itself back?