Ege Erdil

that in five years or three years' time or whatever, we will look at what unlocked agency and it'll look fairly simple.

But the amount of work that, you know, in terms of these complementary kind of innovations that enable the model to be able to learn how to become a competent agent, that might have just been very difficult and taken years of innovation and a bunch of improvements in kind of hardware and scaling and various other things.

I think Agus said you'd be able to book a flight, which is very different from having like full agentic computer use like a human.

Yeah.

So I think something that would reveal its ability to do very long context things, use multimodal capabilities in a meaningful way and integrate that with reasoning and other types of systems and also agency and being able to take action over a long horizon and

accomplish some tasks that takes very long for humans to do, not just in, you know, specific software environments, but just very broadly.

Say, downloading an arbitrary game from Steam and, you know, something that's never seen before, it doesn't really have much training data, maybe it was released kind of after its training cut off, and so there's no tutorials or

Maybe there's no earlier versions of the game that has been, you know, discussed on the internet.

And then accomplishing that game and actually playing that game to the end and accomplishing these various milestones that, you know, are challenging for humans.

Like, that would be a substantial update.

I mean, there are other things that would update me, too.

Like, you know, OpenAI making a lot more revenue than it's currently doing.

I think that's not a huge update to me if that were to happen.

So I think the update would come if it was in fact $500 billion in revenue or something like that.

But then I would certainly update quite a lot.

But $100 billion, that seems pretty kind of likely to me.

I would assign that maybe a 40% chance or something.

People pay $100 billion for all sorts of things.

That itself is not a very strong piece of evidence that it's going to be transformative, I think.

I think it's like, you know, examples might be introducing novel...