Eliezer Yudkowsky

Reductionism is not a positive belief, but rather a disbelief that the higher levels of simplified multi-level models are out there in the territory.

Understanding this on a gut level dissolves the question of how can you say the airplane doesn't really have wings when I can see the wings right there?

The critical words are really and see.

Chaotic inversion.

I was recently having a conversation with some friends on the topic of hour-by-hour productivity and willpower maintenance, something I've struggled with my whole life.

I can avoid running away from a hard problem the first time I see it, perseverance on a timescale of seconds, and I can stick to the same problem for years, but to keep working on a timescale of hours is a constant battle for me.

Conversation probably not accurate, this is a very loose gist.

And I replied that I usually browse random websites or watch a short video.

Well, they said, if you know you can't work for a while, you should watch a movie or something.

Unfortunately, I replied, I have to do something whose time comes in short units, like browsing the web or watching short videos, because I might become able to work again at any time and I can't predict when.

And then I stopped because I just had a revelation.

I'd always thought of my work cycle as something chaotic, something unpredictable.

I never used those words, but that was the way I treated it.

But here, my friends seemed to be implying, what a strange thought, that other people could predict when they would become able to work again and structure their time accordingly.

And it occurred to me for the first time that I might have been committing that damned old chestnut, the mind projection fallacy, right out there in my ordinary everyday life instead of high abstraction.

Maybe it wasn't that my productivity was unusually chaotic.

Maybe I was just unusually stupid with respect to predicting it.

That's what inverted stupidity looks like.

Chaos.

Something hard to handle, hard to grasp, hard to guess.