Ellen Zentner

So not necessarily when are we going to get beyond this, but it's more of what does this mean in the bigger picture of

long-term national security and resource nationalism and resource scarcity and defense spending and all of those things.

And so it makes those topics really top of mind for clients because you can't...

It really gets exhausting trying to figure out when is this thing going to end?

Am I supposed to time it?

What should I do here?

And so it just opens the door to some really interesting conversations.

I don't think anyone knows when we're going to be out of this.

And what does out of this even mean?

Yeah, well, even if, I mean, what does it mean to open the Strait tomorrow?

I mean, let's just assume that's a thing and that that could happen.

You've still got all of these price effects and shortages in the pipeline.

And businesses have to absorb that.

Households have to absorb that.

And some countries are going to be able to absorb it better than others.

There are countries that will step in with food subsidies and other assistance like that.

But there will be pain.

Now, does that mean recession?

Not necessarily.

But I think the probability of recession here is higher than people think.