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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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We say good morning across the country. It is an April 1st ritual. And I do this because you should see my new Filson fishing guide vest. Really? $289. Wow. It's very good. It's designed for anglers to organize gear for a full day out on the tundra as well. On April 1st, we always speak with Ellen Zettner because they said to Lisa Shallott, I'm sorry, I got to do fly fishing here.
There's the pre-runoff window. Yeah. Like the winter waters. Yeah. And the streams are like what, clearer? Yeah.
The fish have been starving all winter and you get them before the runoff. And so they're pretty excited about that. And you don't get a lot of pressure. You don't see a lot of other anglers out there. And actually, some of the best fly fishing is going out for Mother's Day, which is actually just before the runoff, but won't make you very popular with mom.
Okay. Is this the Arkansas and South Platte? Is it the Yellowstone and Missouri rivers? Where does Ellen Zentner go?
Wow, Tom, you're really struggling with this this morning.
Yeah, well, you know, I think this is important. Like, where is your chosen April River in America?
Well, look, we don't ever give away the rivers that we like to fish. You don't do that. Compliance won't let her. But Montana is still a big favorite, a big favorite of ours.
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Chapter 2: How does Ellen Zentner analyze market volatility?
The low-income consumer has been in and out of recession. The first recession they went to was when they worked through the excess savings that had been built up during COVID from the stimulus and just not being able to spend. Yep. so they've been in and out of recession. Luckily, wage growth has, at least for a time, been outpacing inflation.
But the wealthy consumer, we don't need the wealthy consumer to just stop spending. It's slowing spending. And of course, if you've already met a lot of pent-up demand, you've been out there spending for years now with this amazing run-up in financial assets, you're sitting on a lot of equity in your home, but you're not seeing further gains It can cause you to pull back on spending.
And that's all it all it takes.
Let me get this in quickly. What's investment look like? We never talk about the eye of C plus I plus G and X, et cetera. What's investment look like forward?
So business investment had been very tech and infrastructure related, AI related last year. The big optimism around this year has been with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act as we turn the corner into this year, there were nascent signs of business investment starting to broaden out because it's really hard to not want to take advantage of that. We've done 100% bonus depreciation, sorry, 50% before.
We've not done 100%. And it's on infrastructure as well. It's really hard to not take advantage of that. But is this a false start? Because now you have the conflict in Iran. You've got energy prices, input prices for businesses, and they're going to have to eat a good chunk of that. Does that negate some of your decisions that you were going to make to invest?
I think they will still take advantage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But this is what... As soon as we're able to look beyond the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz, here's what the next concern is. The cliff that we will fall off from having pulled forward all of the demand and tax breaks and everything else from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
We have to run. Ellen Zettner, thank you so much. I learned so much today about... trout fishing in the pre-runoff. She is with Morgan Stanley.
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Chapter 3: What insights does Ellen provide on consumer behavior?
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Chapter 4: How is the oil market affected by the war in Iran?
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