Eric Larson

Since World War II, we've seen this equilibrium between capital and labor as a share of GDP that was so consistent, it kind of lulled economists into thinking this was some immutable law of nature.

So 70% of GDP went to labor, 30% went to capital.

Over the last decade,

decade, decade and a half, you've seen a real erosion of that.

Now it's about 60% is going to labor and 40% to capital.

I think as AI matures and diffuses, you're going to see an inversion of that number.

I think it is going to go asymmetrically toward capital and away from labor.

And I think this is going to have massive implications for society and the economy.

And I don't believe AI is going to create more jobs than it's going to destroy.

Right now, 60% of all the jobs in the U.S.

economy didn't exist 80 years ago.

And every time there's a big paradigmatic shift

Technology destroys jobs, but has historically created more jobs than counterbalance, and I don't think that's going to be the case.

Now, in healthcare, it's going to play out with more subtlety, because right now we've got asymmetric demand and insufficient supply.

We have 1.8 million unfilled jobs in healthcare.

So the first thing to go is that overhang.

And societally, I think you're going to see this phenomenon of job-hopping

turning to job hugging.

And you're already starting to see it in tech.

You've got the greatest unemployment since the dot-com burst in software engineers and programmers.