Eric Levitz

People born into the bottom of the American class hierarchy were more likely to move up than they are today. And you also saw just a lot of opportunity for blue collar workers. In absolute terms, Americans are much better off materially today than they are in the 1950s. But in terms of the level of progress, the pace of moving up, this was better back in that era.

There is some research from the economists David Autour, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson who looked at localities that suffered trade shocks

There is some research from the economists David Autour, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson who looked at localities that suffered trade shocks

There is some research from the economists David Autour, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson who looked at localities that suffered trade shocks

that resulted in massive manufacturing job losses, and they found that those trade shocks do reduce the earnings of young men relative to young women, and that those places then see a drop in marriage and fertility rates that similar places without those shocks did not see. So there's some evidence that there is some truth to this, you know.

that resulted in massive manufacturing job losses, and they found that those trade shocks do reduce the earnings of young men relative to young women, and that those places then see a drop in marriage and fertility rates that similar places without those shocks did not see. So there's some evidence that there is some truth to this, you know.

that resulted in massive manufacturing job losses, and they found that those trade shocks do reduce the earnings of young men relative to young women, and that those places then see a drop in marriage and fertility rates that similar places without those shocks did not see. So there's some evidence that there is some truth to this, you know.

Which doesn't mean that we should value high marriage and birth rates over women's autonomy, but it just reinforces why the right is so fixated about this.

Which doesn't mean that we should value high marriage and birth rates over women's autonomy, but it just reinforces why the right is so fixated about this.

Which doesn't mean that we should value high marriage and birth rates over women's autonomy, but it just reinforces why the right is so fixated about this.

No, and there's two levels on which it's not going to work. First, Trump's tariffs are unlikely to even increase at the margin manufacturing in the United States, at least in the near term. The immediate response to Trump's tariffs among businesses and investors has been panic and a slowing down of investment.

No, and there's two levels on which it's not going to work. First, Trump's tariffs are unlikely to even increase at the margin manufacturing in the United States, at least in the near term. The immediate response to Trump's tariffs among businesses and investors has been panic and a slowing down of investment.

No, and there's two levels on which it's not going to work. First, Trump's tariffs are unlikely to even increase at the margin manufacturing in the United States, at least in the near term. The immediate response to Trump's tariffs among businesses and investors has been panic and a slowing down of investment.

It's generated massive uncertainty. You don't know what the tariffs are going to be a few weeks from now, let alone a few years. This is not a situation in which you are going to put in the money and time to put up a new factory in the United States that only makes economic sense if the tariffs stay in place for another five years. So one, it's just not working on its own terms.

It's generated massive uncertainty. You don't know what the tariffs are going to be a few weeks from now, let alone a few years. This is not a situation in which you are going to put in the money and time to put up a new factory in the United States that only makes economic sense if the tariffs stay in place for another five years. So one, it's just not working on its own terms.

It's generated massive uncertainty. You don't know what the tariffs are going to be a few weeks from now, let alone a few years. This is not a situation in which you are going to put in the money and time to put up a new factory in the United States that only makes economic sense if the tariffs stay in place for another five years. So one, it's just not working on its own terms.

But two, even if Trump had the most perfectly designed tariffs, was the most trustworthy steward of the American economy so everyone knew that he was going to stick by whatever he said, you would not be able to return the United States to an economy in which 30% of the workforce is working in manufacturing instead of closer to 10% as it is today.

But two, even if Trump had the most perfectly designed tariffs, was the most trustworthy steward of the American economy so everyone knew that he was going to stick by whatever he said, you would not be able to return the United States to an economy in which 30% of the workforce is working in manufacturing instead of closer to 10% as it is today.

But two, even if Trump had the most perfectly designed tariffs, was the most trustworthy steward of the American economy so everyone knew that he was going to stick by whatever he said, you would not be able to return the United States to an economy in which 30% of the workforce is working in manufacturing instead of closer to 10% as it is today.

The reason for that is that as countries get richer, people spend... a larger share of their money on services and a smaller share of their money on manufactured goods. The human appetite for appliances and cars is more limited than the human appetite for better health and higher investment returns. You know, you only need so many dishwashers. And so, fundamentally, we need an economic model