Eric Schmidt

There's an old rule.

I'm old enough to remember, right?

Grove giveth, gates taketh away.

OK?

The hardware just gets faster and faster.

The physicists are amazing.

Just incredible what they've been able to do.

And us software people, we just use it and use it and use it.

And when you look at planning, at least in today's algorithms, it's back and forth and try this and that, and just watch it yourself.

There are estimates, and you know this from Andreessen Horowitz's reports, it's been well studied, that there's an increase in at least a factor of 100, maybe a factor of 1,000 in computation required just to do the kind of planning.

The technology goes from essentially deep learning to reinforcement learning to something called test-time compute, where not only are you doing planning, but you're also learning while you're doing planning.

That is the, if you will, the zenith or what have you of computation needs.

That's problem number one, electricity and hardware.

Problem number two is we ran out of data, so we have to start generating it, but we can easily do that because that's one of the functions.

And then the third question that I don't understand is, what's the limit of knowledge?

I'll give you an example.

Let's imagine we are collectively all of the computers in the world, and we're all thinking, and we're all thinking based on knowledge that exists that was previously invented.

How do we invent something completely new?

So Einstein.

So when you study the way scientific discovery works, biology, math, so forth and so on, what typically happens is a truly brilliant human being looks at one area and says, I see a pattern that's in a completely different area.