Eric Schmidt
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So for the U.S., what this means is very complicated national security systems, very complicated vision systems, very complicated military management systems, and the adoption of autonomy and drones, which is occurring in Ukraine, but not in the U.S. yet.
Well, the generals want the following. They want a battlefield management system that shows all the sensors and shooters. So they have sensors and they have things that shoot. And they want the AI to assemble all of that. They've wanted this for a decade. And various people have promised it to them. I don't think that's how it's going to actually work.
Well, the generals want the following. They want a battlefield management system that shows all the sensors and shooters. So they have sensors and they have things that shoot. And they want the AI to assemble all of that. They've wanted this for a decade. And various people have promised it to them. I don't think that's how it's going to actually work.
I think what's really going to work is that every aspect of the battlefield will be reimagined to be more autonomous. And autonomy, a simple example is, why do you need a soldier with a gun? Why don't you have an automatic gun? Why do you need a jet fighter with a bomb? Why don't you just have an automatic drone with a bomb?
I think what's really going to work is that every aspect of the battlefield will be reimagined to be more autonomous. And autonomy, a simple example is, why do you need a soldier with a gun? Why don't you have an automatic gun? Why do you need a jet fighter with a bomb? Why don't you just have an automatic drone with a bomb?
And there will be a supervisory system, and the supervisory system will do the planning. But ultimately, as we discussed before, the human control is essential. So under no circumstances should we give up human control to these machines.
And there will be a supervisory system, and the supervisory system will do the planning. But ultimately, as we discussed before, the human control is essential. So under no circumstances should we give up human control to these machines.
But it will change war in the sense that the general will sit there and there'll be a button saying, do you approve of my battle plan based on these autonomous systems? And with that, a war is started or a war is ended.
But it will change war in the sense that the general will sit there and there'll be a button saying, do you approve of my battle plan based on these autonomous systems? And with that, a war is started or a war is ended.
It could. I just watched a play in London two days ago, which is about Dr. Strangelove. And you remember in the movie from 1963, the Russians, this came out of a RAND study in 1960. In this story, the Russians had secretly created a doomsday machine, but had not bothered to tell the U.S. this. And that if they were attacked, the doomsday machine would kill everyone.
It could. I just watched a play in London two days ago, which is about Dr. Strangelove. And you remember in the movie from 1963, the Russians, this came out of a RAND study in 1960. In this story, the Russians had secretly created a doomsday machine, but had not bothered to tell the U.S. this. And that if they were attacked, the doomsday machine would kill everyone.
So it's the best possible story for why you don't want automatic systems that just decide on their own. Because you can get into all sorts of situations where there was a misunderstanding and terror occurs.
So it's the best possible story for why you don't want automatic systems that just decide on their own. Because you can get into all sorts of situations where there was a misunderstanding and terror occurs.
We actually, the three authors all disagreed on this. I'm quite sure humanity will survive and I am an optimist more so than Henry was. And we miss him by the way. But the reason to be on my side of this is that we as humans have faced all of these challenges before. And in all cases, we have survived at various levels of pain. So we will survive.
We actually, the three authors all disagreed on this. I'm quite sure humanity will survive and I am an optimist more so than Henry was. And we miss him by the way. But the reason to be on my side of this is that we as humans have faced all of these challenges before. And in all cases, we have survived at various levels of pain. So we will survive.
Let's reduce the possible pain and let's certainly avoid conflict using these new tools at the scale that we're discussing. It would be horrendous.
Let's reduce the possible pain and let's certainly avoid conflict using these new tools at the scale that we're discussing. It would be horrendous.
I think the first point, which I cannot emphasize enough, is that this stuff is happening much, much faster than I expected and that almost anyone understands. I have never in my almost 50 years career doing this had a situation where there's a surprise every day. And almost all of the surprises are to more power, more insight, better than human performance.
I think the first point, which I cannot emphasize enough, is that this stuff is happening much, much faster than I expected and that almost anyone understands. I have never in my almost 50 years career doing this had a situation where there's a surprise every day. And almost all of the surprises are to more power, more insight, better than human performance.
And as that arrives, it changes huge human systems, because humans have organized themselves in various ways. We need to have a map of the arrival and the impact. I'd say the second point is that there's a set of questions that we don't know. And one of them is, where is the limit of this kind of intelligence? Let me give you an example.