Eyck Freymann

But Xi Jinping is particularly interested in meeting KMT figures.

He met former Taiwan KMT president Ma Ying-jeou in Singapore in 2015.

And I think if the KMT wins the next presidential election in 2028, he would be very happy to return back to the negotiating table, but with much more leverage than he had last time.

So let's go back to 1949.

After Mao takes over the mainland, the dust settles, he's in charge.

In 1949, the first thing he does is instruct his generals to prepare the invasion plan to take over Taiwan.

This is the unfinished business of the war.

And they do the analysis and they conclude, sir, it can't be done.

Not even close.

The Taiwan Strait is one of the most difficult waterways in the world.

The weather is unpredictable.

The meteorological tidal conditions are very difficult.

Taiwan is this mountain fortress.

There's only a small number of beaches you can land on.

And there's an attempt to squeeze Taiwan out of some of its offshore islands, which might be easier to seize.

But then there's two Taiwan Straits crises with the United States where Washington says,

not on our watch.

So Beijing essentially has been denied this prize, and they have been building over time the military capability to increase their chances of pulling off an amphibious invasion.

But in my analysis, at least, they are still not at the point where they could have confidence that that will work.

despite all of these decisions the United States has made to spend down stockpiles of critical munitions in the Middle East.