Eyck Freymann

So that is why diplomacy remains Xi Jinping's preferred vector for achieving what he calls reunification.

But of course, he doesn't care about whether it's democratically acceptable to the people of Taiwan.

He wants a very coerced form of diplomacy.

one in which Taiwan feels squeezed on all sides and therefore has no choice.

And what he's willing to offer Taiwan is probably something similar to what he offered Hong Kong.

One country, two systems, Taiwan plan.

And basically it means Taiwan has to capitulate on the principle.

It has to admit, yes, there is only one China in the world, we're part of it, and Beijing is the legitimate government.

And the offer on the table is if Taiwan will accept some version of that principle, it can maintain self-government.

It can maintain its own control over its economic affairs.

Maybe it can get subsidized energy, other perks.

It can essentially enjoy some of the benefits of being part of China without the drawbacks of being subject to authoritarian communist control.

The reason this has gotten to be a harder sell is that after 2019, when the people of Taiwan watched what happened to Hong Kong, one country, two systems is clearly a weasel word.

It means as soon as you step out of line, Beijing will seize the opportunity to bring the hammer down.

So that's the reason Taiwan is only ever going to accept some kind of deal along these lines.

If it's truly under duress, it has nowhere else to turn.

Well, let's break down these scenarios one by one.

Xi Jinping wants to build a full menu of options, options that he can take either simultaneously or in sequence.

So one of them is obviously an amphibious invasion that's crossed the strait on amphibious ships and deposit men on the beaches, or deposit them by air through paratroopers and helicopters.

And the way that works is you have to seize a beachhead or an airhead, which is a position that you can hold under fire, and then use that to deliver some number of tens of thousands of men, plus all their vehicles, their medical, their food, their fuel, the whole logistics tale.