Eyck Freymann

But if he rolls the iron dice, he has a whole lot to lose.

And that's the double-edged sword of his ambition.

And that is ultimately why he is deterrable.

But you have to show him that if he messes up over Taiwan, he could put the whole project in jeopardy.

I think there's a lot of truth in what you say, but I don't fully agree.

I fully agree that

The remainder of Trump's term is a uniquely tempting moment because Trump is so transactional, because he doesn't think strategically.

So there's every reason for them to try to see what they can get out of Trump at the negotiating table, and then failing that to squeeze him and see what he gives up.

And I think when we talk about dates, we need to recognize it's not a question of whether China does it or doesn't.

They are already doing it.

They are squeezing Taiwan every day.

Right now, it's a coercion.

Right now, it's soft power.

From every direction.

It's the boa constrictor strategy, using every tool of their national power, squeezing Taiwanese airlines to list themselves as Chinese on their websites, pressuring third countries to extradite Taiwanese nationals to China for trial.

You know,

establishing like a near permanent presence of drones and other stuff all around the airspace and waters around Taiwan.

Yes.

Exactly.

So the question becomes,