Ezra Klein
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So I guess what I'd ask here, because I've seen people really wanting to make this paper, the Rosetta Stone, how do you understand what it says? What is the remaking of the global financial order that it proposes? And then how well... Has the administration's policy decisions and movements tracked that paper's offerings?
So I guess what I'd ask here, because I've seen people really wanting to make this paper, the Rosetta Stone, how do you understand what it says? What is the remaking of the global financial order that it proposes? And then how well... Has the administration's policy decisions and movements tracked that paper's offerings?
Do you feel that consensus was discredited? I do. Because I don't buy this connection between trade policy and And life expectancy as a one-to-one thing.
Do you feel that consensus was discredited? I do. Because I don't buy this connection between trade policy and And life expectancy as a one-to-one thing.
You served in the Obama administration. I don't remember Barack Obama talking about trade as an endlessly unfettered good thing. When he had that gaffe, when he talked about people in hollowed-out factory towns clinging to guns and religion, what he was talking about was hollowed-out factory towns, right? Even then, there was a lot of...
You served in the Obama administration. I don't remember Barack Obama talking about trade as an endlessly unfettered good thing. When he had that gaffe, when he talked about people in hollowed-out factory towns clinging to guns and religion, what he was talking about was hollowed-out factory towns, right? Even then, there was a lot of...
concern over whether parts of the country were being terribly left behind.
concern over whether parts of the country were being terribly left behind.
Into that vacuum steps Donald Trump, who believed this since, like, the 80s, 90s in Japan. Correct. Right? He came to these views that he's proposing now when the antagonist wasn't even China, it was Japan.
Into that vacuum steps Donald Trump, who believed this since, like, the 80s, 90s in Japan. Correct. Right? He came to these views that he's proposing now when the antagonist wasn't even China, it was Japan.
So give me both sides of that. What do you understand to be the benefits America gets from being the world's reserve currency? And what is the cost that is being argued at least that it carries?
So give me both sides of that. What do you understand to be the benefits America gets from being the world's reserve currency? And what is the cost that is being argued at least that it carries?
All right, so those are at least some of the gains. What's the downside? What's the downside?
All right, so those are at least some of the gains. What's the downside? What's the downside?
Let me zoom in for a minute on the question of whether or not the dollar is driving the decline in manufacturing employment. It's probably true that the dollar's value has had some effect on that. But every estimate I find is that it's a fraction of the total. And this is more automation. It's more the move to services. It's more a bunch of different things.
Let me zoom in for a minute on the question of whether or not the dollar is driving the decline in manufacturing employment. It's probably true that the dollar's value has had some effect on that. But every estimate I find is that it's a fraction of the total. And this is more automation. It's more the move to services. It's more a bunch of different things.
And it's probably not going to come back. So you can look at other countries. Germany has a very different trade policy than we do. They've existed in more of the world that I think Stephen Moran and Donald Trump seem to want us to exist in. And you also see manufacturing as a share of employment dropping there.
And it's probably not going to come back. So you can look at other countries. Germany has a very different trade policy than we do. They've existed in more of the world that I think Stephen Moran and Donald Trump seem to want us to exist in. And you also see manufacturing as a share of employment dropping there.
There are a lot of arguments people make right now that China has probably hit peak manufacturing employment. I think Donald Trump is a nostalgic person. And I think that he wants an economy and he's baselined on economy of America in the 50s, the 60s, perhaps. And that he's trying in his own way to get us back there, but there's no there to go back to.
There are a lot of arguments people make right now that China has probably hit peak manufacturing employment. I think Donald Trump is a nostalgic person. And I think that he wants an economy and he's baselined on economy of America in the 50s, the 60s, perhaps. And that he's trying in his own way to get us back there, but there's no there to go back to.