Ezra Klein

Well, one of the reasons I am myself skeptical that the 90-day pause is as... clarity bringing of a policy move, as I think some are treating it, is that I remember the 30-day pause on Canada and Mexico. And there was a market reaction to the announcement of the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Then he backed off and people said, oh, look, you know, old Donnie Trump, he's not going to do this.

Well, one of the reasons I am myself skeptical that the 90-day pause is as... clarity bringing of a policy move, as I think some are treating it, is that I remember the 30-day pause on Canada and Mexico. And there was a market reaction to the announcement of the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. Then he backed off and people said, oh, look, you know, old Donnie Trump, he's not going to do this.

That guy cares about the stock market. And then in 30 days, he did. And then we had another reaction. And then it's been kind of escalating from there. And now there's a de-escalation. But nobody really knows what he wants from these other countries in the 90-day pause. There's been a bunch of reporting that people in other countries, you know, who would happily come and try to make a deal.

That guy cares about the stock market. And then in 30 days, he did. And then we had another reaction. And then it's been kind of escalating from there. And now there's a de-escalation. But nobody really knows what he wants from these other countries in the 90-day pause. There's been a bunch of reporting that people in other countries, you know, who would happily come and try to make a deal.

Not exactly clear what we want from Vietnam, but maybe we could get it. But it has not been communicated to them. what Donald Trump wants. And there have been... Steve Moran gave the speech and he said, well, maybe you can help us with defense spending or maybe you can buy more of our things or you could just make a direct donation to the U.S. Treasury was one of the options.

Not exactly clear what we want from Vietnam, but maybe we could get it. But it has not been communicated to them. what Donald Trump wants. And there have been... Steve Moran gave the speech and he said, well, maybe you can help us with defense spending or maybe you can buy more of our things or you could just make a direct donation to the U.S. Treasury was one of the options.

But it's a little... One of the things that has been very, I think, tricky about this is... is there's one world where they're trying to achieve something very discreet. And there's another where Donald Trump likes tariffs because tariffs are leverage. And he's a person who works in leverage, wields leverage, who develops moments of anger at other countries, right?

But it's a little... One of the things that has been very, I think, tricky about this is... is there's one world where they're trying to achieve something very discreet. And there's another where Donald Trump likes tariffs because tariffs are leverage. And he's a person who works in leverage, wields leverage, who develops moments of anger at other countries, right?

Maybe we come to a deal with Europe, but then Europe does something he doesn't like or France does something he doesn't like. And so this kind of shakiness can persist, right? One of my worries for the economy right now is that, you know, a 10% tariff and a higher one on China is bad, but there can be adjustments made to that.

Maybe we come to a deal with Europe, but then Europe does something he doesn't like or France does something he doesn't like. And so this kind of shakiness can persist, right? One of my worries for the economy right now is that, you know, a 10% tariff and a higher one on China is bad, but there can be adjustments made to that.

But a world where lots and lots of companies are delaying investments over a long period of time, that's a secondary effect that will push a lot of investment we need or we're expecting in the present out into the future. And that does have an effect on jobs. It does have an effect on our industrial base. It does have an effect on lots of other things.

But a world where lots and lots of companies are delaying investments over a long period of time, that's a secondary effect that will push a lot of investment we need or we're expecting in the present out into the future. And that does have an effect on jobs. It does have an effect on our industrial base. It does have an effect on lots of other things.

And, I mean, that just seems very likely to be our world.

And, I mean, that just seems very likely to be our world.

Has that changed? Is the theory of the case less befuddling now?

Has that changed? Is the theory of the case less befuddling now?

I think it's good for us to circle the Moran paper for a few minutes because something I see people on Wall Street doing is, A lot of you all are very smart people. And you're looking- You all. Look at this. I'm not on Wall Street. I'm a poor member of the media here, man. Okay. There is a search for a framework that makes sense.

I think it's good for us to circle the Moran paper for a few minutes because something I see people on Wall Street doing is, A lot of you all are very smart people. And you're looking- You all. Look at this. I'm not on Wall Street. I'm a poor member of the media here, man. Okay. There is a search for a framework that makes sense.

And Moran offered people the most sophisticated framework for something that might be Donald Trump's trade policy. But also Moran has said, he just gave a speech over the week, where he's asked about his very important paper. And he said, look, this paper is not important because I wrote it before I was in the administration. It's not exactly Donald Trump's trade theory.

And Moran offered people the most sophisticated framework for something that might be Donald Trump's trade policy. But also Moran has said, he just gave a speech over the week, where he's asked about his very important paper. And he said, look, this paper is not important because I wrote it before I was in the administration. It's not exactly Donald Trump's trade theory.