Ezra Klein

But now the tariff on China looks to be, it's in the, you know, over 100% as we're speaking. There are some different tariff rates on a It seems that this is on the order of a 25-point tariff increase on average because the China one is so high, and that's the calculation I've been seeing around. This is being treated now, given how bad things were getting, as a walk back to a moderate position.

But now the tariff on China looks to be, it's in the, you know, over 100% as we're speaking. There are some different tariff rates on a It seems that this is on the order of a 25-point tariff increase on average because the China one is so high, and that's the calculation I've been seeing around. This is being treated now, given how bad things were getting, as a walk back to a moderate position.

But when I talk to people who were Trump supporters during the campaign— And this was a proposal. They promised me nothing like this would ever happen. There'd just be a negotiating ploy that he would come down from after he got some deals.

But when I talk to people who were Trump supporters during the campaign— And this was a proposal. They promised me nothing like this would ever happen. There'd just be a negotiating ploy that he would come down from after he got some deals.

So from your perspective as somebody talking with a lot of different companies who has a perspective on markets, what does it mean for these tariffs to go into effect? How does that change your estimation of future U.S. growth? How are you advising or would you advise companies to act given that there's been a lot of volatility here? What does this point mean for the economy?

So from your perspective as somebody talking with a lot of different companies who has a perspective on markets, what does it mean for these tariffs to go into effect? How does that change your estimation of future U.S. growth? How are you advising or would you advise companies to act given that there's been a lot of volatility here? What does this point mean for the economy?

There's one, the tariff rate. And if the tariff rates, if anybody believed they were stable, we could simply model that out. Okay, a 10% tariff here, a 60% tariff there. We could think about that like a tax policy. But then there's the uncertainty, right? Like you're saying here, you don't expect the China tariffs to be what they are today in a year or in two years.

There's one, the tariff rate. And if the tariff rates, if anybody believed they were stable, we could simply model that out. Okay, a 10% tariff here, a 60% tariff there. We could think about that like a tax policy. But then there's the uncertainty, right? Like you're saying here, you don't expect the China tariffs to be what they are today in a year or in two years.

I think a lot of people don't even expect the bilateral tariffs on a bunch of different countries to be what they are today in a year or two years. So one of the things the Trump administration says they're trying to achieve is persuading companies to make investment decisions based on these tariffs, specifically to persuade them to invest in the U.S.,

I think a lot of people don't even expect the bilateral tariffs on a bunch of different countries to be what they are today in a year or two years. So one of the things the Trump administration says they're trying to achieve is persuading companies to make investment decisions based on these tariffs, specifically to persuade them to invest in the U.S.,

But if companies don't trust that the tariff environment today is going to be the tariff environment in a year, and these are long-term capital expenditure decisions— it would seem that the obvious thing to do is to just wait.

But if companies don't trust that the tariff environment today is going to be the tariff environment in a year, and these are long-term capital expenditure decisions— it would seem that the obvious thing to do is to just wait.

But how can you make the decision at all? Because as good as your geopolitical advisory team might be. And they are excellent. I'm sure they're wonderful. I do this professionally. I'm pretty good at it. And I know the people involved. Right. And I can tell you that they cannot tell you what Donald Trump will do in 30 days. Yes. Or in 90 days.

But how can you make the decision at all? Because as good as your geopolitical advisory team might be. And they are excellent. I'm sure they're wonderful. I do this professionally. I'm pretty good at it. And I know the people involved. Right. And I can tell you that they cannot tell you what Donald Trump will do in 30 days. Yes. Or in 90 days.

Because the only person who knows is him and he doesn't know. Right.

Because the only person who knows is him and he doesn't know. Right.

Has there been a signal, aside from wait and see, that in your experience companies are taking from the reorientation of American policy? I mean, there are investments you cannot pause forever. There are decisions you have to make. Companies make, as you said, decisions under uncertainty all of the time. And obviously Donald Trump has intuitions. People know what those are.

Has there been a signal, aside from wait and see, that in your experience companies are taking from the reorientation of American policy? I mean, there are investments you cannot pause forever. There are decisions you have to make. Companies make, as you said, decisions under uncertainty all of the time. And obviously Donald Trump has intuitions. People know what those are.

In the decisions that do need to be made, have you seen a pattern on the way people are trying to plan for the uncertain policy equilibrium we are likely to be in to some degree for a while?

In the decisions that do need to be made, have you seen a pattern on the way people are trying to plan for the uncertain policy equilibrium we are likely to be in to some degree for a while?