Ezra Klein

The art of the deal. Only there's no deal. Trump struck no deal with anybody. And there was definitely no art. We learned the outer edge of Trump's pain tolerance, and so did the rest of the world. So there goes some of his leverage. We saw a slapdash policy fall apart within a week or so. But still, Trump's allies are declaring his genius. Not because they expect us to believe it.

The art of the deal. Only there's no deal. Trump struck no deal with anybody. And there was definitely no art. We learned the outer edge of Trump's pain tolerance, and so did the rest of the world. So there goes some of his leverage. We saw a slapdash policy fall apart within a week or so. But still, Trump's allies are declaring his genius. Not because they expect us to believe it.

but because they know he needs to hear it and he needs to hear them saying it in public aloud. It is part of the structure of humiliation that dictators demand of their servants. Authoritarianism is not just a mode of governance. It's a habit of communication. The king is always right, even when he is contradicting what he said a day before.

but because they know he needs to hear it and he needs to hear them saying it in public aloud. It is part of the structure of humiliation that dictators demand of their servants. Authoritarianism is not just a mode of governance. It's a habit of communication. The king is always right, even when he is contradicting what he said a day before.

Future influence in the court relies on being in his good graces and praise is the currency of that grace. Dictatorships are disastrous in part because they restrict the flow of information around the decision maker. The bond market was eventually information Trump could not ignore, that nobody could tell him to ignore.

Future influence in the court relies on being in his good graces and praise is the currency of that grace. Dictatorships are disastrous in part because they restrict the flow of information around the decision maker. The bond market was eventually information Trump could not ignore, that nobody could tell him to ignore.

But those who seek his favor and his ear are making sure he learns nothing from this episode. I suspect we are underestimating how thick the informational bubble around Trump now is, how little bad news actually reaches him, how rarely he ever hears serious criticism clearly delivered, how much the sycophants around him praise every utterance that comes out of his mouth.

But those who seek his favor and his ear are making sure he learns nothing from this episode. I suspect we are underestimating how thick the informational bubble around Trump now is, how little bad news actually reaches him, how rarely he ever hears serious criticism clearly delivered, how much the sycophants around him praise every utterance that comes out of his mouth.

So no, I don't expect Trump to learn much from this episode. But what should the rest of us learn from it? My guest today is Peter Orszag, the CEO of Lazard, one of the world's largest asset management and global financial advisory firms. He was also the director of the Office of Management and Budget under Barack Obama.

So no, I don't expect Trump to learn much from this episode. But what should the rest of us learn from it? My guest today is Peter Orszag, the CEO of Lazard, one of the world's largest asset management and global financial advisory firms. He was also the director of the Office of Management and Budget under Barack Obama.

So he served as a policymaker during financial crises and is a market and CEO whisperer in these last few months. What is he hearing? What is he seeing? As always, my email, EzraKleinShow at NYTimes.com. Peter Orszag, welcome to the show. Good to be with you. So we are speaking late afternoon on Wednesday the 9th.

So he served as a policymaker during financial crises and is a market and CEO whisperer in these last few months. What is he hearing? What is he seeing? As always, my email, EzraKleinShow at NYTimes.com. Peter Orszag, welcome to the show. Good to be with you. So we are speaking late afternoon on Wednesday the 9th.

This morning markets were in turmoil, then Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on non-retaliating countries. Tell me as you were tracking the markets and as you were talking to the people at your bank, what you were seeing.

This morning markets were in turmoil, then Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on non-retaliating countries. Tell me as you were tracking the markets and as you were talking to the people at your bank, what you were seeing.

talked about them and talked about the, I think he called it queasiness. He said they were getting queasy. And that, I think, scared people. You can maybe explain why this is better than I can, but people are okay with the stock market going up and down. They're not okay with the bond market beginning to unravel.

talked about them and talked about the, I think he called it queasiness. He said they were getting queasy. And that, I think, scared people. You can maybe explain why this is better than I can, but people are okay with the stock market going up and down. They're not okay with the bond market beginning to unravel.

that that is taken with a different level of seriousness than the S&P market, the equities market, that's volatile. The treasury markets are not supposed to be volatile.

that that is taken with a different level of seriousness than the S&P market, the equities market, that's volatile. The treasury markets are not supposed to be volatile.

So they backed off on this a little bit, but we're still in a place where the tariffs that are being proposed are pretty significant. So they're more or less what Donald Trump was promising during the campaign, a 10% tariff on imported goods. It's still a little bit unclear, and probably by the time this comes out, it might have clarified.

So they backed off on this a little bit, but we're still in a place where the tariffs that are being proposed are pretty significant. So they're more or less what Donald Trump was promising during the campaign, a 10% tariff on imported goods. It's still a little bit unclear, and probably by the time this comes out, it might have clarified.