Ezra Klein

Oh my God.

Oh my God.

From New York Times Opinion, this is The Ezra Klein Show. Here's how the last week or so went. President Donald Trump unveiled a half-baked package of gigantic tariffs. So half-baked, one of them was a tariff on a group of islands inhabited by penguins. Those tariffs threw the markets into chaos.

From New York Times Opinion, this is The Ezra Klein Show. Here's how the last week or so went. President Donald Trump unveiled a half-baked package of gigantic tariffs. So half-baked, one of them was a tariff on a group of islands inhabited by penguins. Those tariffs threw the markets into chaos.

That chaos, it should be said, was not simply the result of higher expected prices or supply chain disruptions. What markets hate is uncertainty. Financial crises are usually the result of some unexpected, uncontrollable shock that overwhelms the policymakers who are trying to maintain stability. In this case, Trump himself was a shock.

That chaos, it should be said, was not simply the result of higher expected prices or supply chain disruptions. What markets hate is uncertainty. Financial crises are usually the result of some unexpected, uncontrollable shock that overwhelms the policymakers who are trying to maintain stability. In this case, Trump himself was a shock.

He was announcing that he was himself trying to end this era of stability. He wanted a realignment of the global financial system. And he can't shift those tectonic plates without creating a few earthquakes. But man, what an earthquake. Trillions of dollars of wealth wiped out of the stock market by choice. The Trump people said, don't worry about it. That's Wall Street, not Main Street.

He was announcing that he was himself trying to end this era of stability. He wanted a realignment of the global financial system. And he can't shift those tectonic plates without creating a few earthquakes. But man, what an earthquake. Trillions of dollars of wealth wiped out of the stock market by choice. The Trump people said, don't worry about it. That's Wall Street, not Main Street.

All we care about is the American worker. But then the upheaval hit the bond markets. The market for U.S. treasuries began to shake. A bad sign because U.S. treasuries are the relentlessly reliable asset at the base of the global financial system. Crack that and the whole house can come down. And that seems to be what pulled Trump back from the brink.

All we care about is the American worker. But then the upheaval hit the bond markets. The market for U.S. treasuries began to shake. A bad sign because U.S. treasuries are the relentlessly reliable asset at the base of the global financial system. Crack that and the whole house can come down. And that seems to be what pulled Trump back from the brink.

But he didn't pull that far back. He is still tariffing most of the world at 10%. He's tariffing China at 145%. And as for the tariffs he paused, well, that's a pause. It's a 90-day pause. What happens at the end of 90 days? What deal is Malaysia supposed to strike with us in the meantime? Who are they going to make that deal with? Nobody knows, not even, I suspect, Trump himself.

But he didn't pull that far back. He is still tariffing most of the world at 10%. He's tariffing China at 145%. And as for the tariffs he paused, well, that's a pause. It's a 90-day pause. What happens at the end of 90 days? What deal is Malaysia supposed to strike with us in the meantime? Who are they going to make that deal with? Nobody knows, not even, I suspect, Trump himself.

But I think what we can say right now are three things with certainty. First, we're entering an era of higher prices and unknown levels of supply chain upheaval. We're about to see a massive trade war with China. The global economy is complex. When you put this kind of pressure on that system, things that you were not expecting can break.

But I think what we can say right now are three things with certainty. First, we're entering an era of higher prices and unknown levels of supply chain upheaval. We're about to see a massive trade war with China. The global economy is complex. When you put this kind of pressure on that system, things that you were not expecting can break.

Second, we are in an era of extended extraordinary economic uncertainty. No one really knows what any of these tariffs are gonna be in a year. Will Trump get peeved by what countries do or don't offer him in the next 90 days and return with yet more fury? Trump sees tariffs as ongoing leverage in every policy dispute. Is he really gonna give that up?

Second, we are in an era of extended extraordinary economic uncertainty. No one really knows what any of these tariffs are gonna be in a year. Will Trump get peeved by what countries do or don't offer him in the next 90 days and return with yet more fury? Trump sees tariffs as ongoing leverage in every policy dispute. Is he really gonna give that up?

I'm doing these two or three day turnarounds on these podcasts and the tariffs are often different by the time I release the episode. If I don't have enough policy certainty to plan a podcast, how are major companies supposed to plan long-term capital investments? Third, the king cannot hear no.

I'm doing these two or three day turnarounds on these podcasts and the tariffs are often different by the time I release the episode. If I don't have enough policy certainty to plan a podcast, how are major companies supposed to plan long-term capital investments? Third, the king cannot hear no.

One of the most appalling parts of his whole fiasco was watching Trump's advisors fawn over him after he buckled. Bill Ackman, the hedge funder, wrote on X, this was brilliantly executed by at real Donald Trump. Textbook art of the deal. You heard this again and again. Here's the White House press secretary.

One of the most appalling parts of his whole fiasco was watching Trump's advisors fawn over him after he buckled. Bill Ackman, the hedge funder, wrote on X, this was brilliantly executed by at real Donald Trump. Textbook art of the deal. You heard this again and again. Here's the White House press secretary.