Ezra Klein

And then I'll go look at an index of stocks that reflect American manufacturing companies, which I guess in theory are meant to benefit here. And they don't look like they're doing well to me. If you look at BYD, the big Chinese electric vehicle car company, they are way up since Trump's inauguration. They've gone from around $70 to around $96 per share. Tesla's way down.

And then I'll go look at an index of stocks that reflect American manufacturing companies, which I guess in theory are meant to benefit here. And they don't look like they're doing well to me. If you look at BYD, the big Chinese electric vehicle car company, they are way up since Trump's inauguration. They've gone from around $70 to around $96 per share. Tesla's way down.

There's a lot of reasons for that. I'm not an efficient markets guy. I don't think markets absorb all information. But you would expect them, I think... if they believe this was going to grow the U.S. economy dramatically to favor some U.S. stocks that they thought were going to grow dramatically. I'm not seeing anything like it.

There's a lot of reasons for that. I'm not an efficient markets guy. I don't think markets absorb all information. But you would expect them, I think... if they believe this was going to grow the U.S. economy dramatically to favor some U.S. stocks that they thought were going to grow dramatically. I'm not seeing anything like it.

How should other countries respond? I mean, I've seen economists arguing they should do nothing because to place down further tariffs only hurts them as well. I've They should do specific forms of tariffing that, you know, hurt things that are important to the US, maybe Tesla.

How should other countries respond? I mean, I've seen economists arguing they should do nothing because to place down further tariffs only hurts them as well. I've They should do specific forms of tariffing that, you know, hurt things that are important to the US, maybe Tesla.

I've heard people say, no, they should go all out because you're trying to create a equilibrium where the US can't bully everyone. If these heads of state were coming to you and saying, you know, what should we do, Paul? What would you tell them?

I've heard people say, no, they should go all out because you're trying to create a equilibrium where the US can't bully everyone. If these heads of state were coming to you and saying, you know, what should we do, Paul? What would you tell them?

How bad can this tit-for-tat get? How likely at this point do you think— A U.S. recession is how likely do you think a global recession is kicked off by this trade war?

How bad can this tit-for-tat get? How likely at this point do you think— A U.S. recession is how likely do you think a global recession is kicked off by this trade war?

I feel like you're going to remember this with some of the same anger that I remember it. But I remember in the years after the Great Recession, when Washington wanted to turn to austerity, when you still had high unemployment, and what you began hearing from the Republican Party.

I feel like you're going to remember this with some of the same anger that I remember it. But I remember in the years after the Great Recession, when Washington wanted to turn to austerity, when you still had high unemployment, and what you began hearing from the Republican Party.

And Lord, how many words I spilled trying to rebut this was, oh, the future deficits were creating so much economic uncertainty. The corporations couldn't possibly invest. And the way to unlock the economy again was to cut spending, you know, maybe for, you know, more of the centric side, raise taxes.

And Lord, how many words I spilled trying to rebut this was, oh, the future deficits were creating so much economic uncertainty. The corporations couldn't possibly invest. And the way to unlock the economy again was to cut spending, you know, maybe for, you know, more of the centric side, raise taxes.

And it was that certainty about future path of government fiscal policy that was needed for corporations to hire again. That turned out to be and was obviously at the time not true. But now you have that same party creating a level of such genuine uncertainty. I can't imagine being a company right now trying to decide where to place a factory or whether or not to make investments.

And it was that certainty about future path of government fiscal policy that was needed for corporations to hire again. That turned out to be and was obviously at the time not true. But now you have that same party creating a level of such genuine uncertainty. I can't imagine being a company right now trying to decide where to place a factory or whether or not to make investments.

Nobody even believes these tariffs are going to be the same in a year, as best I can tell, as they are right now. So I don't know. There's this argument I think got a little bit discredited because it was used in such bad faith. And then all of a sudden, the same people who made it, in many cases—

Nobody even believes these tariffs are going to be the same in a year, as best I can tell, as they are right now. So I don't know. There's this argument I think got a little bit discredited because it was used in such bad faith. And then all of a sudden, the same people who made it, in many cases—

are at least accepting or promoting this tariff policy, which has created a genuinely unfathomable, to me, level of economic uncertainty.

are at least accepting or promoting this tariff policy, which has created a genuinely unfathomable, to me, level of economic uncertainty.