Ezra Klein

Right. I'm saying that's not being unlucky. We chose this. It's being not good. We,

Right. I'm saying that's not being unlucky. We chose this. It's being not good. We,

This gets to something I have been worrying about. You've been warning that America's debt situation is unsustainable for many, many years. We've sort of gone through periods of how controversial that was. I think more recently, kind of everybody's been getting more worried about the debt. Interest rates are up. Our total debt load is very high. Our deficits are quite high.

This gets to something I have been worrying about. You've been warning that America's debt situation is unsustainable for many, many years. We've sort of gone through periods of how controversial that was. I think more recently, kind of everybody's been getting more worried about the debt. Interest rates are up. Our total debt load is very high. Our deficits are quite high.

Now you have this huge tax cut coming. So you can keep all the tariffs and you can raise some money. But if the tariffs are going to go down, they're going to be raising less money through them. They don't at any level pay for the tax cut that is currently being planned. So you could very easily be looking at deficits of called 5% to 7%. And a world where they're causing...

Now you have this huge tax cut coming. So you can keep all the tariffs and you can raise some money. But if the tariffs are going to go down, they're going to be raising less money through them. They don't at any level pay for the tax cut that is currently being planned. So you could very easily be looking at deficits of called 5% to 7%. And a world where they're causing...

Financial conflagrations, let's call it. There's pressure on the dollar. There is a trade war with China where certainly one of the weapons China has is to sell off in U.S. treasuries, which could put pressure on that market. I'm not predicting a Trump-induced financial crisis, but it doesn't seem impossible to me. that those things could combine in a very dangerous way. Not at all.

Financial conflagrations, let's call it. There's pressure on the dollar. There is a trade war with China where certainly one of the weapons China has is to sell off in U.S. treasuries, which could put pressure on that market. I'm not predicting a Trump-induced financial crisis, but it doesn't seem impossible to me. that those things could combine in a very dangerous way. Not at all.

So the next three to four years, you would say a better than even chance. Yeah, better than even chance. That you have buy inflation at 8% or above.

So the next three to four years, you would say a better than even chance. Yeah, better than even chance. That you have buy inflation at 8% or above.

And just to be clear about what you're saying, you're saying the inflation option requires that because... That is a world in which Trump could appoint somebody who would inflate away our debt by printing money to devalue the debt.

And just to be clear about what you're saying, you're saying the inflation option requires that because... That is a world in which Trump could appoint somebody who would inflate away our debt by printing money to devalue the debt.

The others at the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve Board.

The others at the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve Board.

Well, I mean, the Trump administration is a lawsuit in front of trying to bring it up. It's important, basically saying these independent agencies where Trump can't easily fire the head of them, it's unconstitutional. So they could win that lawsuit and then they could talk about whatever they want. And Powell's term will end at some point. Yeah, I mean, I don't think that would be enough.

Well, I mean, the Trump administration is a lawsuit in front of trying to bring it up. It's important, basically saying these independent agencies where Trump can't easily fire the head of them, it's unconstitutional. So they could win that lawsuit and then they could talk about whatever they want. And Powell's term will end at some point. Yeah, I mean, I don't think that would be enough.

So we've sort of talked about this history in the past couple of decades where you had very dominant seeming

So we've sort of talked about this history in the past couple of decades where you had very dominant seeming

countries or countries that seemed on a very bright trajectory really running into turbulence and how they look now is very different from how they looked you know in europe's case two decades ago in japan's case four decades ago and it sounds a bit like you're saying there's a very good shot that america could enter one of those periods itself that our sense that our line only goes up

countries or countries that seemed on a very bright trajectory really running into turbulence and how they look now is very different from how they looked you know in europe's case two decades ago in japan's case four decades ago and it sounds a bit like you're saying there's a very good shot that america could enter one of those periods itself that our sense that our line only goes up