Fawaz Gerges

I'm not convinced at all that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will agree to end his war in Lebanon.

So, again, there are many contentious points.

And there is no clarity.

And all we could say at this point is that some progress has been made, but the memorandum of understanding is not finalized.

And as we know, historically, the devil lies in the details.

So we really have to be careful about making any generalizing about what the memorandum of understanding will include or will not include.

But is it your sense at this point, Fawaz, that if there is a deal being finalised here, really what it will amount to is a ceasefire, a reopening of the Strait, perhaps not freezing up some of those assets and the sanctions that you spoke about there, but that any negotiations on the nuclear programme, they'll just be kicked down the road?

Absolutely.

And that's the biggest win for Iran.

Because, I mean, you will see in the next few days if the agreement is signed,

Many Americans will say to President Trump, why did you trigger this war in the first place?

Because you're going back to the pre-war status quo.

Iran was negotiating with the United States, and the United States and Israel attacked Iran twice while Iran was making concessions on its nuclear program.

And I think what you see is that Iran has insisted that any discussion on its nuclear program will have to really await

the end of the American blockade on its ports, and also the unfreezing of some of its assets by the United States.

And this is a major, major political and symbolic win for Iran.

Just very briefly for Wes, if something doesn't materialise this time round, what can we expect to see next?

Well, I think what we're going to expect next is basically the beginning of

of a serious negotiation process between Iran and the United States.

And again, very complex, very difficult, very painful.