Fiona Hill

But all of the big bombing campaigns and the destruction actually prolonged wars because they made people fight back, as we're kind of seeing in the case of Ukraine.

So Putin has to calculate the probability.

that if he uses some tactical nuclear weapon, that it will get the desired effect, which is get us to capitulate and Ukraine to capitulate.

Us to capitulate, meaning the United States and the Europeans, not supporting Ukraine anymore, pushing towards the negotiating table and negotiating Ukraine away.

And Ukraine saying, OK, we give up, like happened in Hiroshima and Nagasaki or in Japan.

So it's his calculation, you know, as much as anything else, which is really important.

He said we have to show him that he won't get that out of it.

It's kind of less our probability and, you know, kind of the odds of it.

It's just how he calculates that probability of getting what he wants.

Yeah, so it goes on.

That's right.

And actually he's already using Chernobyl, Zaporizhia, and then usually Ukraine's the other...

nuclear reactors.

So he's using civilian nuclear reactors as a dirty bomb.

So, you know, it's ironic that he has Sergei Shoigu, his defense minister, calling people up and saying the Ukrainians are going to use a dirty bomb.

They're already doing it.

I mean, what is, you know, kind of more destructive than stirring up all the radioactive dust in Chernobyl as you send your troops through?

for example, or shelling the Chernobyl plant and the sarcophagus and putting it at risk.

And Zaporizhzhia, you've got the International Atomic Energy Agency running out there in utter panic and also trying to intervene in the conflict.

So you're putting civilian nuclear reactors at risk.