Frances Lee

Where we began to see policy divergence is in the reopening process. Democratic-leaning states maintained these stay-at-home orders two and a half times longer than Republican-leaning states. Democratic-leaning states were slower to reopen schools, dramatically slower to reopen schools.

Where we began to see policy divergence is in the reopening process. Democratic-leaning states maintained these stay-at-home orders two and a half times longer than Republican-leaning states. Democratic-leaning states were slower to reopen schools, dramatically slower to reopen schools.

They maintained more stringent restrictions in terms of business closures and which businesses could reopen and when and on what timeline and whether you'd have to have outdoor dining or whether restaurants would be closed again in the winter of 2020. So there were substantial policy differences between red states and blue states over the course of the pandemic.

They maintained more stringent restrictions in terms of business closures and which businesses could reopen and when and on what timeline and whether you'd have to have outdoor dining or whether restaurants would be closed again in the winter of 2020. So there were substantial policy differences between red states and blue states over the course of the pandemic.

And at the time that the vaccine rollout began, there was no difference between red states and blue states in their cumulative COVID mortality over the course of the crisis.

And at the time that the vaccine rollout began, there was no difference between red states and blue states in their cumulative COVID mortality over the course of the crisis.

No difference. The difference begins to emerge in the post-vaccine period. And that's where you begin to see blue states faring better than red states. So that by the end of the time series we examine in our book, which stops in January 23rd, Republican states had 30% more COVID mortality than Democratic states.

No difference. The difference begins to emerge in the post-vaccine period. And that's where you begin to see blue states faring better than red states. So that by the end of the time series we examine in our book, which stops in January 23rd, Republican states had 30% more COVID mortality than Democratic states.

That's correct. This is what we can see as we look back. We can see that there was a great deal of variation in how states responded, but that variation doesn't correlate with variation in COVID outcomes as measured by mortality from the disease, as reported to the CDC.

That's correct. This is what we can see as we look back. We can see that there was a great deal of variation in how states responded, but that variation doesn't correlate with variation in COVID outcomes as measured by mortality from the disease, as reported to the CDC.

And we control for factors like the age structure of the state population, the percent with obesity, the percent who live in urban areas. And, you know, other demographic factors likely to affect a state's vulnerability to the virus.

And we control for factors like the age structure of the state population, the percent with obesity, the percent who live in urban areas. And, you know, other demographic factors likely to affect a state's vulnerability to the virus.

Well, individuals of sufficient means to stay home can protect themselves individually. But what works for individuals may not work for society as a whole.

Well, individuals of sufficient means to stay home can protect themselves individually. But what works for individuals may not work for society as a whole.

That's right. Another explanation is, of course, that it matters greatly who is being infected. It was only highly lethal in certain populations. And so if you were not protecting those in nursing homes, but you were keeping the teenagers and the college students locked down, you're not going to achieve anything in terms of reducing COVID mortality.

That's right. Another explanation is, of course, that it matters greatly who is being infected. It was only highly lethal in certain populations. And so if you were not protecting those in nursing homes, but you were keeping the teenagers and the college students locked down, you're not going to achieve anything in terms of reducing COVID mortality.

We also didn't know when the virus reached the United States. There's evidence from antibodies in blood banks that the virus was already here in December of 2019. So it had already been spreading for months before the first lockdowns occurred. And data from cell phone mobility shows that lockdowns begin to break down after just a few weeks. So they're not sustainable for human beings either.

We also didn't know when the virus reached the United States. There's evidence from antibodies in blood banks that the virus was already here in December of 2019. So it had already been spreading for months before the first lockdowns occurred. And data from cell phone mobility shows that lockdowns begin to break down after just a few weeks. So they're not sustainable for human beings either.

Human beings could not comply over the long haul. You know, there's evidence that these measures made a difference for transmission, but there's not evidence that these measures were effective at reducing COVID mortality. And so that's just where we are. We need to do more study to understand what happened during the pandemic.

Human beings could not comply over the long haul. You know, there's evidence that these measures made a difference for transmission, but there's not evidence that these measures were effective at reducing COVID mortality. And so that's just where we are. We need to do more study to understand what happened during the pandemic.