Frances Lee

And so I think we need to confront our failures and our successes and learn from it.

And so I think we need to confront our failures and our successes and learn from it.

Our data are consistent with that interpretation in that we begin to see a divergence after the vaccine rollout between states with high vaccine uptake and states with low vaccine uptake in their COVID mortality. At the aggregate level, States that had higher vaccine uptake do have better COVID outcomes in the period after vaccines were available.

Our data are consistent with that interpretation in that we begin to see a divergence after the vaccine rollout between states with high vaccine uptake and states with low vaccine uptake in their COVID mortality. At the aggregate level, States that had higher vaccine uptake do have better COVID outcomes in the period after vaccines were available.

They're extraordinarily wide-ranging. I mean, this was a whole-of-society intervention, and so the whole of society was affected. I mean, we can start by thinking about the cost to education. We saw unprecedented drops in student learning as gauged by longstanding indicators of student progress. Chronic absenteeism from school roughly doubled nationwide, still elevated.

They're extraordinarily wide-ranging. I mean, this was a whole-of-society intervention, and so the whole of society was affected. I mean, we can start by thinking about the cost to education. We saw unprecedented drops in student learning as gauged by longstanding indicators of student progress. Chronic absenteeism from school roughly doubled nationwide, still elevated.

The gaps that emerged in learning outcomes between the better off and the less well off students, they widened and they haven't begun to close since the pandemic ended and since schools reopened. Those gaps are still wider than they were. Those who are academically lagging before the pandemic were much worse off after the pandemic. I mean, we can go through the long—it's a long list of costs.

The gaps that emerged in learning outcomes between the better off and the less well off students, they widened and they haven't begun to close since the pandemic ended and since schools reopened. Those gaps are still wider than they were. Those who are academically lagging before the pandemic were much worse off after the pandemic. I mean, we can go through the long—it's a long list of costs.

The 2020 COVID response was equivalent as a share of GDP to both the New Deal and the 2009 stimulus package combined.

The 2020 COVID response was equivalent as a share of GDP to both the New Deal and the 2009 stimulus package combined.

And then in 2021, we had another New Deal all over again. It's roughly equivalent in terms of the demand on the U.S. Treasury to war mobilization in 1943. About 10 percent of the total cost went to health care. Most of it is going to sustaining businesses and individuals through the closures. That's the lion's share of COVID aid.

And then in 2021, we had another New Deal all over again. It's roughly equivalent in terms of the demand on the U.S. Treasury to war mobilization in 1943. About 10 percent of the total cost went to health care. Most of it is going to sustaining businesses and individuals through the closures. That's the lion's share of COVID aid.

I mean, that's where things stand. I think that's one of the reasons why there's a great deal of hesitance to look back at what was done and to take stock of it.

I mean, that's where things stand. I think that's one of the reasons why there's a great deal of hesitance to look back at what was done and to take stock of it.

That's a larger question than I think we are capable of settling. What we can point to is the shortcomings in deliberation, in considering the costs, and in the equivocal and skeptical nature of the evidence when these measures were undertaken. And the doubts about what difference they made based on the data that we have now. That's why we think a larger conversation is necessary.

That's a larger question than I think we are capable of settling. What we can point to is the shortcomings in deliberation, in considering the costs, and in the equivocal and skeptical nature of the evidence when these measures were undertaken. And the doubts about what difference they made based on the data that we have now. That's why we think a larger conversation is necessary.

It's not for us to say. I mean, there's the scale of the decisions we are talking about are society wide. They are global decisions. As I have reflected on the work that Steve and I were doing as we were writing, I'm struck by the tragedy if these measures didn't work.

It's not for us to say. I mean, there's the scale of the decisions we are talking about are society wide. They are global decisions. As I have reflected on the work that Steve and I were doing as we were writing, I'm struck by the tragedy if these measures didn't work.

What the costs were, what else we could have done had we been able to make those kinds of public investments in something that was effective for other needs that we have as a society. It is excruciating to think about, but I think we owe it to ourselves to do so.

What the costs were, what else we could have done had we been able to make those kinds of public investments in something that was effective for other needs that we have as a society. It is excruciating to think about, but I think we owe it to ourselves to do so.