Friedberg

When this took off, It was about 10,000 bucks a kilogram to put a small sat into space or to put material into space. And then SpaceX has dropped the cost to the point that it's now close to $1,000 a kilogram. So a 10X reduction in cost in just the last decade or so. And that's why SpaceX just dominates the launch market. But Elon's always said that $1,000 a kilogram is too high

But his objective has been to get the cost down to 10 bucks a kilogram. Because at 10 bucks a kilogram, you could launch what some people estimate is needed to get to Mars, which is about half a million tons of material and people to set up a colony on Mars. And it actually becomes feasible to get, you know, half a million tons of material at 10 bucks a kilogram. So if you look at

But his objective has been to get the cost down to 10 bucks a kilogram. Because at 10 bucks a kilogram, you could launch what some people estimate is needed to get to Mars, which is about half a million tons of material and people to set up a colony on Mars. And it actually becomes feasible to get, you know, half a million tons of material at 10 bucks a kilogram. So if you look at

this new Starship and Starship heavy booster, it's about 150, 200 ton payload. The booster holds, you know, 3,400 tons of propellant. And, uh, the cost of that propellant is pretty low. You know, it's, uh, It's only about a million dollars in fuel.

this new Starship and Starship heavy booster, it's about 150, 200 ton payload. The booster holds, you know, 3,400 tons of propellant. And, uh, the cost of that propellant is pretty low. You know, it's, uh, It's only about a million dollars in fuel.

So then if you can get the cost of the booster and the Starship down enough, and you can reuse it enough, and you amortize the cost of making that device over the lifetime of the device, the cost per launch comes down. And that's what brings the cost per kilogram down. So the booster, there's a group called Payload, and they do estimates on this.

So then if you can get the cost of the booster and the Starship down enough, and you can reuse it enough, and you amortize the cost of making that device over the lifetime of the device, the cost per launch comes down. And that's what brings the cost per kilogram down. So the booster, there's a group called Payload, and they do estimates on this.

So I won't speak out of turn in terms of like having inside knowledge. But the Payload has estimated that Starship And the booster cost about 90 million bucks today. And they think that they have a path to getting it down to 35 million. So if you can reuse that thing 10 times, that's a $3.5 million cost per launch, plus a million for fuel. You could easily see, and this thing can launch 200 tons.

So I won't speak out of turn in terms of like having inside knowledge. But the Payload has estimated that Starship And the booster cost about 90 million bucks today. And they think that they have a path to getting it down to 35 million. So if you can reuse that thing 10 times, that's a $3.5 million cost per launch, plus a million for fuel. You could easily see, and this thing can launch 200 tons.

That's how you start to get to 10 bucks a kilogram. over the next couple of years, but it was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster. And that's what Elon just demonstrated. It's we can actually catch that heavy booster, refuel it and launch it an hour later. And if you can do that over and over again, you're spending 10 bucks a kilogram to put material into space.

That's how you start to get to 10 bucks a kilogram. over the next couple of years, but it was critical to be able to reuse that heavy booster. And that's what Elon just demonstrated. It's we can actually catch that heavy booster, refuel it and launch it an hour later. And if you can do that over and over again, you're spending 10 bucks a kilogram to put material into space.

You can get fuel into space and then get those starships to fly off to Mars and deliver. all this material, including setting up a base that would allow you to actually make more fuel on Mars, because everything we need to make fuel is on Mars. So it's the beginning of the next series of really important milestones that'll hopefully get humanity onto Mars.

You can get fuel into space and then get those starships to fly off to Mars and deliver. all this material, including setting up a base that would allow you to actually make more fuel on Mars, because everything we need to make fuel is on Mars. So it's the beginning of the next series of really important milestones that'll hopefully get humanity onto Mars.

It was just so amazing to see it come together. The economics are legit. I mean, this is like a thousand X reduction in cost. It's incredible.

It was just so amazing to see it come together. The economics are legit. I mean, this is like a thousand X reduction in cost. It's incredible.

Starlink's apparently, I mean, I know everyone here is a shareholder in SpaceX, but Starlink's running at 4 million subs right now. That's like 100 bucks a month, 4 million subs. And if you do the math, I mean, how many people... have ISPs that are slower than Starlink, right? How many people have cell phone providers that they're paying roughly the same amount that aren't as good as Starlink?

Starlink's apparently, I mean, I know everyone here is a shareholder in SpaceX, but Starlink's running at 4 million subs right now. That's like 100 bucks a month, 4 million subs. And if you do the math, I mean, how many people... have ISPs that are slower than Starlink, right? How many people have cell phone providers that they're paying roughly the same amount that aren't as good as Starlink?

If we can get satellite to phone and you can get Starlink more broadly available, this could be 100 million subscriber business. I mean, this could be one of the biggest businesses on the earth.

If we can get satellite to phone and you can get Starlink more broadly available, this could be 100 million subscriber business. I mean, this could be one of the biggest businesses on the earth.

We could look back one day and be like, why did we run all this copper wire everywhere? We don't need it.