Garrison Davis

It's not it will definitely happen here and there's nothing you can do to stop it.

These panic-inducing claims and the articles they're sourced from are referring to real things or movements happening in either right-wing activism or anti-trans policy and legislation, but are framed in a way to maximize catastrophe rather than actually understanding what's happening at the moment and what we can do about it.

Left unchecked, panic clickbait reduces the process of staying informed to being in a state of constant doom and feeling hopeless against an unstoppable enemy, or it makes someone completely check out and not believe anything they see online, even if there is a real pressing threat.

Both of which cloud our ability to assess and respond to very real threats.

For the bulk of this episode, I'm going to focus on an article that claims ICE is now permitted to detain anyone for quote-unquote looking trans.

This reporting and the online discussion around it is a microcosmatic example of how we understand both the Trump administration's attacks on trans people and how and why ICE operates as an agency.

This story can be traced to a sub-stack post with the headline, Trump administration opens the door for ICE to target anyone suspected of being trans.

The sub-headline continues by reading, quote, Under a new rule, the State Department will be able to revoke trans people's visas over, quote-unquote, misrepresentation.

It'll give ICE grounds to suspect all trans people of being in the U.S.

illegally, unquote.

The information contained in this headline is the furthest many people will engage with the content of this article.

Combining that headline with preconceived notions about how ICE functions under the second Trump administration makes this a very frightening claim.

So what evidence does the Substack article include to support this claim?

Earlier this month, the State Department updated its policy for the Diversity Immigrant Visa Program, also known as the Green Card Lottery.

The new rules require that applicants upload a scan of their foreign passport's biographic and signature page to cut down on fraudulent Diversity Visa Program entries.

The policy update also changed the gender entry to sex on application forms.

In the policy rule update, the State Department wrote, The marker reflected in the sex field on any visa application, including the entry form, should match the applicant's biological sex at birth, even if that differs from the sex listed on the applicant's foreign passport or other identifying documentation."

The Substack article claims this could force a, quote, mismatch between trans people's applications and their passports, something it can then use to declare their applications fraudulent and disqualify them entirely, unquote.

The first half of that sentence is true.

A mismatch may occur between the gender listed on foreign documents and the sex the U.S.