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Behind the Bastards

It Could Happen Here Weekly 226

04 Apr 2026

Transcription

Chapter 1: What is the context of the current political climate for trans people in the U.S.?

0.031 - 3.535 Lori Siegel

This is an iHeart Podcast. Guaranteed human.

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5.156 - 17.889 Garrison Davis

I'm Lori Siegel, and on my new podcast, Mostly Human, I'll take you to some wild corners of the tech world. I'm about to go on a date with an AI companion at a real-world cafe right here in New York City.

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18.81 - 24.336 Unknown

There's no playbook for what to do when an AI model hallucinates a story about you.

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24.737 - 31.844 Garrison Davis

Mostly Human is your playbook for how tech can work for you. Anyone can now be an entrepreneur. Anyone can build an app. And it's very empowering.

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32.124 - 37.129 Lori Siegel

Listen to Mostly Human on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.

44.816 - 73.035 Garrison Davis

This is one of the most dramatic events that really ever happened in New York City politics. I screamed, get down, get down. Those are shots. A tragedy that's now forgotten. And a mystery that may or may not have been political, that may have been about sex. Listen to Rorschach, Murder at City Hall on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

75.428 - 82.64 Garrison Davis

In 2023, Bachelor star Clayton Eckerd was accused of fathering twins, but the pregnancy appeared to be a hoax.

82.66 - 86.206 Lori Siegel

You doctored this particular test twice, Ms. Owens, correct?

86.226 - 91.935 Michael Edison Hayden

I doctored the test once. It took an army of internet detectives to uncover a disturbing pattern.

Chapter 2: How does panic clickbait affect public perception of trans rights?

1518.915 - 1548.193 Garrison Davis

Though in extreme cases, that's stretched into multiple days. When I posted about this online, someone sent me a Wikipedia article claiming it proved that ICE has deported 170 U.S. citizens during Trump's second term. The article actually said 170 citizens have been detained. Since Trump took office again, there have been a few reported instances of U.S.-born citizens being deported.

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1548.233 - 1574.476 Garrison Davis

These are citizen children who are deported with immigrant parents to avoid child separation. Though many, many children do end up being separated from their parents when their parents are deported. The last argument that people fall back on is simply that ICE is a completely lawless agency and it can do whatever it wants, including going after trans people. After all, ICE has murdered U.S.

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1574.516 - 1598.278 Garrison Davis

citizens on camera in broad daylight. But it's important to remember, that happened for a reason. Those weren't random acts. ICE and CBP murdered people protesting ICE raids targeting their immigrant neighbors. Federal agents killed people because the protesting was an inconvenience. And there was use of force policy and training directing them to do so.

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1598.839 - 1611.175 Garrison Davis

For decades, CBP agents have killed people at the border and gotten away with it. The Trump administration may not care about the law, but this analysis is not based on any assumptions about legality.

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1611.215 - 1636.566 Garrison Davis

It's based on the administration's own stated goals, which they've been very open about, and the policies and practices currently in effect, none of which relate to ICE targeting people for quote-unquote looking trans. From what we know, the Kavanaugh Stops framework have never been used to target trans people for being trans as the reasonable suspicion of being illegally in the country.

1636.586 - 1659.47 Garrison Davis

And there's been no change in guidelines saying that being trans can be the basis for said stops. Asserting otherwise is simply false. Insisting that because of State Department application policy, ICE will now randomly arrest trans people is conflating two very different things. This isn't about the potential legality of ICE targeting trans people.

1659.53 - 1678.037 Garrison Davis

I'm simply saying there is no such directive instructing ICE to do that. asserting that the Trump administration is completely 100% unbounded by law, also ignores the fact that federal and immigration courts are still in active terrain of battle.

1678.578 - 1689.137 Garrison Davis

While the administration has repeatedly ignored courts and judges' orders, people have also been successfully released from ICE custody by filing habeas corpus petitions.

1689.117 - 1714.838 Garrison Davis

It's not that I believe in the personal integrity of ICE agents, far from it, but this concept of ICE as this vague fascist death squad that will go after any group the Trump administration hates turns ICE into this abstract idea rather than a single material agency with concrete motivations and limits that leaves a wake of destruction in the course of achieving their purpose.

Chapter 3: What are the implications of the new State Department policies on trans individuals?

2475.055 - 2489.215 Garrison Davis

The bill has not yet passed the state senate, and it may not in its current form. Right now it's unclear what exact form the collected data will take within a statistics report, and what level of anonymizing data aggregation will be employed.

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2490.116 - 2514.122 Garrison Davis

This is something to keep an eye on if the bill does pass and the State Department of Health drafts guidelines for the mandatory statistics reporting, but the way it's being reported is incredibly misleading. Interestingly, the source for this public list claim is the same Substack outlet that created the false story about ICE now being able to detain people for looking trans.

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2514.102 - 2538.253 Garrison Davis

Also earlier this month, multiple LGBTQ news outlets reported that the Fourth Circuit Court approved state bans on gender-affirming health care for adults. On March 10th, a Republican-appointed three-judge panel of the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that states can prohibit gender-affirming surgery from being covered by Medicaid.

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2538.233 - 2557.077 Garrison Davis

The ruling affirmed a ban on Medicaid coverage for, quote, sex change surgeries in West Virginia, with the panel arguing it doesn't discriminate against trans people because it applies to specific procedures, not specific individuals. This is certainly bad news for trans people in West Virginia on Medicaid.

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2557.778 - 2576.83 Garrison Davis

But reporting that this decision could soon result in trans people losing health care in other states or nationally is misleading and removes key context. This is not a total ban on these procedures. It's a ban on state Medicaid coverage of these surgical procedures.

2577.113 - 2599.257 Garrison Davis

The ruling is not a ban on other forms of gender-affirming healthcare like HRT, nor does it threaten the hospital's ability to receive Medicare and Medicaid funds for providing gender-affirming healthcare like the Trump administration has threatened so far unsuccessfully. Still, people postulated on how this ruling could be laying the legal groundwork to eliminate adult transgender healthcare.

2599.827 - 2622.915 Garrison Davis

but trans journalist David Forbes noted that this ruling will likely be appealed to the wider Fourth Circuit, which has recently ruled in the opposite direction of this three-panel ruling. What panicked assertions of an impending total ban on trans healthcare tends to overlook is that going from a state ban on Medicaid coverage for surgery

2622.895 - 2648.127 Garrison Davis

Straight to an all-ages ban on gender-affirming healthcare skips a lot of steps, and those steps are crucially important. The panic-clickbait-induced doomer mindset treats every horrific potentiality as an inevitable eventuality. This undermines our ability to accurately assess risk and effectively dedicate resources to oppose what are pressing threats.

2648.967 - 2668.03 Garrison Davis

So what purpose does this sort of posting serve? And why are people so primed to believe it? These panic-driven claims rest on the very real fact that trans people are facing present danger. Oftentimes, people boosting these panic stories are genuinely trying to help inform their own community of potential harm.

Chapter 4: What impact does CIA propaganda have on perceptions of Venezuelans?

6531.01 - 6554.022 Garrison Davis

You guys are blinded by propaganda. When in reality, what that's doing is that is taking away the accountability that many on the left should maybe, you know, maybe think about because it hasn't just been... CIA propaganda. It's also just leftists acting like assholes. That's something that has also pushed many Venezuelans away from the left. Yeah, 100%.

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Chapter 5: How do Venezuelans feel about the left's actions towards them?

6554.303 - 6563.717 Garrison Davis

It's not just the CIA spreading propaganda. It's also that the left has acted horribly with the Venezuelans, and that has also pushed people away.

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6563.697 - 6584.909 Garrison Davis

And I think if we're able to solve that issue, if I think of the left is able to see Venezuelans as human beings and to have a different approach, such as, you know, with, you know, what we talked about earlier, I think we're going to be able to have a better conversation and have a better relationship between these two communities and actually get somewhere productive.

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6585.289 - 6612.183 Garrison Davis

But I just wanted to bring that up because I am so tired. I'm seeing people saying it's all CIA propaganda and not really thinking, well, actually, we have also done some pretty bad things. And that's why these people kind of have taken a dislike to us. So, yeah, I think I think that's pretty much it. Like in conclusion, just hear hear us out. We're human and we're not the perfect victims.

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6612.283 - 6639.839 Garrison Davis

We're not a monolith. We're human. So we should be spoken to as humans and thought about as humans, not as some chess piece in this political game. Just include us into the conversation, I think is the most important thing anyone listening to this should take away. Yeah, I think that's a really good place to end. Thank you so much for sharing some of that time with us.

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6640.5 - 6664.167 Garrison Davis

No, thank you so much for giving me the space to talk. I mean, it's very necessary, as you might imagine, for our voices to be heard and be put out there. Because I'm lucky enough to be multilingual, I try to do my best and speak in other languages so other people understand me. what's going on in our minds and in our communities.

6664.287 - 6674.225 Garrison Davis

So I am very grateful that you're able to have me here and to actually listen. It's not something many people do. So I really do value it.

Chapter 6: What is the significance of the Brimlow family's castle in Berkeley Springs?

6675.327 - 6676.83 Robert Evans

Great. Thank you. That's great.

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6690.563 - 6696.914 Lori Siegel

I'm Lori Siegel, a longtime tech journalist. And consider my new podcast, Mostly Human, your bridge to the future.

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6696.974 - 6716.487 Garrison Davis

Anyone can now be an entrepreneur. Anyone can build an app. And it's very empowering. Each week, I'll speak to the people building that future. And we're going to break down what all of this innovation actually means for you. What I come to realize is that when people think that they're dating this AI companion, they're actually dating the companies that create this.

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6716.585 - 6729.661 Unknown

We're experiencing one of the greatest tech accelerations in human history. And let's be honest, that can be messy. There's no playbook for what to do when an AI model hallucinates a story about you.

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6730.062 - 6739.774 Garrison Davis

But it's my belief that we should all benefit from this moment. Mostly Human will show you how. My goal is to give you the playbook so you can benefit.

6739.923 - 6747.243 Mia Wong

The reason I say agency is because if we can give power back to people, then I think that's probably the best thing we can do for your mental health.

6748.105 - 6753.46 Lori Siegel

Listen to Mostly Human on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.

6757.709 - 6763.916 Garrison Davis

In 2023, former Bachelor star Clayton Eckerd found himself at the center of a paternity scandal.

6764.156 - 6776.349 Lori Siegel

The family court hearings that followed revealed glaring inconsistencies in her story. This began a years-long court battle to prove the truth. You doctored this particular test twice in so-and-so, correct?

Chapter 7: How is the U.S. military managing its missile stockpiles during ongoing conflicts?

10628.632 - 10646.775 Garrison Davis

We're talking precision-guided missiles like the Tomahawk cruise missile, but also the interceptor missiles used by our various missile batteries. Estimates suggest the U.S. has already expended about a thousand Tomahawks in a month of combat operations, which would be around a third, maybe a little less, of the total stockpile.

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10646.755 - 10664.523 Garrison Davis

That doesn't sound so bad until you realize that our present stockpile of tomahawks was built up over more than a decade. We're only capable of making about 150 a year at present levels, which means our military already burned through around seven years' worth of these things. Maybe more, because in 2025, the U.S.

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10664.663 - 10686.904 Garrison Davis

defense budget included something like 56 tomahawks, even though our largely ineffectual war against the Houthis had already depleted the stockpile. This is a story that you'll hear over and over again in this episode. The U.S. military is actually quite bad at knowing and asking for what it will need, and even worse at predicting accurately what it's going to need in the immediate future.

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10687.508 - 10707.659 Garrison Davis

Each Tomahawk costs around $3.6 million to produce, and these are the only long-range offensive weapons mounted by our naval destroyers. Per a source interviewed by Military Watch magazine, quote, without intervention, the Pentagon may be left out of ammunition. Now, tomahawks aren't the only things the U.S. military is low on.

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10708 - 10719.102 Garrison Davis

Per that same article, inventories of anti-ballistic missiles and GBU-57 bunker buster bombs are estimated to have been almost totally spent while being significantly more costly to replace.

Chapter 8: What are the implications of the U.S. military's ammunition shortages?

10719.622 - 10743.402 Garrison Davis

We just don't have granular data on the size of U.S. interceptor missile stockpiles or our supply of stuff like Patriot missiles. But we do have a pretty good understanding of how badly our regional allies have depleted their stockpiles of these defensive tools. Bahrain is estimated to have expended 87% of their Patriot missiles. The UAE and Kuwait are up to 75%. And Qatar is at like 40%.

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10743.432 - 10762.723 Garrison Davis

Experts estimate that Iran has gone through or lost via airstrike roughly a third of their ballistic missile stockpile. This may or may not be accurate. And if it's inaccurate, it may or may not be inaccurate in either direction. Our intel and Israel's intel is often very spotty when it comes to stuff like this.

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10762.703 - 10783.075 Garrison Davis

A good illustration of this would be the fact that on March 20th, Iran fired two ICBMs at Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean that hosts a joint US-UK air and naval base. Neither missile did any damage, but that wasn't really the point. The launch of these missiles was a message from the Iranian regime to the US one.

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10783.055 - 10794.868 Garrison Davis

Previously, Iran had limited itself to only striking targets within 1,240 miles of its own borders with ballistic missiles. Diego Garcia is roughly 2,300 miles away. Many U.S.

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10794.888 - 10811.205 Garrison Davis

analysts had treated for years 1,240 miles as if it represented an actual hard limit on Iran's striking capability based on what their missiles could reach, as opposed to what it really was, which is a political decision made by Iranian leaders to limit the scope of conflicts.

10811.185 - 10832.788 Garrison Davis

When the Trump administration launched an unprovoked series of joint strikes on Iran, killing the Supreme Leader and many senior officials, we violated one of the unstated agreements that had held for over decades of conflict. The president's supporters and major hawks on Iran argued that these self-imposed limits were allowing Iran's leadership to support terrorism abroad with impunity.

10832.768 - 10853.093 Garrison Davis

The strike on Diego Garcia proved that military analysts had been wrong about the top range of Iran's best ballistic missiles, but it also served as a statement from Iran's new leaders. You've taken the gloves off and thrown out the rule book. Now we have too. Hudson Institute senior fellow Khan Khosropoglu said, published an analysis that made this same basic argument.

10853.354 - 10875.695 Garrison Davis

Quote, "'A strike profile extending into the Indian Ocean demonstrates not merely extended range, but Iran's deliberate abandonment of strategic ambiguity. Iran is no longer signaling restraint. It is signaling reach and doing so under live warfighting conditions.'" It also more subtly signaled something else. U.S. planners didn't know as much as they thought they did about Iran's capabilities.

10876.175 - 10893.437 Garrison Davis

This has been evident since the war began. Despite Trump's claims to have totally annihilated Iran's offensive capability, on March 27th, a combined missile and drone attack hit Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, injuring more than 10 U.S. soldiers, two seriously, and damaging several aircraft.

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