Gary Klein

So to break through that mindset, I developed this technique of a premortem, and at the end of a kickoff meeting, we say, all right, imagine that I'm looking at a crystal ball. I'm dialing forward six months, maybe a year, whatever the right time frame is, and oh, no. This project has failed. It's failed in a big way. We know that. There is no doubt. This crystal ball is infallible.

Now, everybody in the room, you've got two minutes. Write down all the reasons why this project failed. And it's amazing the types of issues that people surface that ordinarily they wouldn't say in public or even think about.

Now, everybody in the room, you've got two minutes. Write down all the reasons why this project failed. And it's amazing the types of issues that people surface that ordinarily they wouldn't say in public or even think about.

Now, everybody in the room, you've got two minutes. Write down all the reasons why this project failed. And it's amazing the types of issues that people surface that ordinarily they wouldn't say in public or even think about.

Well, after I developed the technique, I read about some research on prospective hindsight. And so I think a big part of it is the certainty that it's failed. And so now that changes my mindset. So I'm not resisting. If I say, here's the plan, are there any problems? There's all kinds of pressure not to think about problems.

Well, after I developed the technique, I read about some research on prospective hindsight. And so I think a big part of it is the certainty that it's failed. And so now that changes my mindset. So I'm not resisting. If I say, here's the plan, are there any problems? There's all kinds of pressure not to think about problems.

Well, after I developed the technique, I read about some research on prospective hindsight. And so I think a big part of it is the certainty that it's failed. And so now that changes my mindset. So I'm not resisting. If I say, here's the plan, are there any problems? There's all kinds of pressure not to think about problems.

But by being certain that the plan has failed, by entering into that exercise, it just changes the whole valence, the whole experience.

But by being certain that the plan has failed, by entering into that exercise, it just changes the whole valence, the whole experience.

But by being certain that the plan has failed, by entering into that exercise, it just changes the whole valence, the whole experience.

OK, so let me get we never thought about this as a tool outside our company. This was just something we did. But then we had a big project we were doing for the Air Force. It was a software tool for identifying ways of using precision-guided munitions. And I told my prime sponsor, I want to do a premortem. And he said, what's that? And I explained it to him, and he said, absolutely no way.

OK, so let me get we never thought about this as a tool outside our company. This was just something we did. But then we had a big project we were doing for the Air Force. It was a software tool for identifying ways of using precision-guided munitions. And I told my prime sponsor, I want to do a premortem. And he said, what's that? And I explained it to him, and he said, absolutely no way.

OK, so let me get we never thought about this as a tool outside our company. This was just something we did. But then we had a big project we were doing for the Air Force. It was a software tool for identifying ways of using precision-guided munitions. And I told my prime sponsor, I want to do a premortem. And he said, what's that? And I explained it to him, and he said, absolutely no way.

We want everybody to be positive. This is such a depressing exercise. I don't want to do it. And I said... This is an important project. We want it to succeed. This is a way to make it succeed. And reluctantly, he agreed to do it. We were doing this premortem, and there was this young captain. He hadn't said a word. The meeting had gone on for about two days. He hadn't said a word.

We want everybody to be positive. This is such a depressing exercise. I don't want to do it. And I said... This is an important project. We want it to succeed. This is a way to make it succeed. And reluctantly, he agreed to do it. We were doing this premortem, and there was this young captain. He hadn't said a word. The meeting had gone on for about two days. He hadn't said a word.

We want everybody to be positive. This is such a depressing exercise. I don't want to do it. And I said... This is an important project. We want it to succeed. This is a way to make it succeed. And reluctantly, he agreed to do it. We were doing this premortem, and there was this young captain. He hadn't said a word. The meeting had gone on for about two days. He hadn't said a word.

And it was time for him to come up with what he had on his list. We'd go around one at a time around the room, and we'd do one or two or three sweeps. And he looked a little nervous, and he said, this tool that we're building, it's for people in the field, and they have these low-powered laptops. The tool we're building runs on a supercomputer that takes 48 hours.

And it was time for him to come up with what he had on his list. We'd go around one at a time around the room, and we'd do one or two or three sweeps. And he looked a little nervous, and he said, this tool that we're building, it's for people in the field, and they have these low-powered laptops. The tool we're building runs on a supercomputer that takes 48 hours.

And it was time for him to come up with what he had on his list. We'd go around one at a time around the room, and we'd do one or two or three sweeps. And he looked a little nervous, and he said, this tool that we're building, it's for people in the field, and they have these low-powered laptops. The tool we're building runs on a supercomputer that takes 48 hours.

I don't see how that's going to work. And there was silence in the room because everybody realized he was right. And then somebody said, now, I've got a back of the envelope technique that I use that could be a shortcut. And all of a sudden, we were back in business. But if we hadn't done that, we would have failed. And he never would have said that if we didn't give him that space.