Gary Stevenson

Alright, so what are the probable outcomes?

As you know, I follow the betting market very closely on this.

At the moment, the betting market has

Andy Burnham at about 63% chance to become the new Prime Minister.

Yeah, somewhere 62 63% chance.

So that's obviously about 50%.

It's probably going to be Andy Burnham, but it's a long way below 100%.

That all depends on whether he wins the by election, he has something like 70% chance of winning the by election.

So it's kind of contingent if he wins the by election, which he probably will, but might not.

then he will become the MP and then he has to challenge Keir Starmer.

He'll probably end up being Prime Minister.

If Andy Burnham loses the by-election, then Keir Starmer has about a 30% chance of surviving the year, which basically tells you at the moment

What you probably get is either Burnham or another year of Keir Starmer.

If we get another year of Keir Starmer, that doesn't mean Keir Starmer will stay prime minister.

I think it's still very unlikely he survives till the next election.

If Burnham loses, then next year we could have either Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband or Wes Streeting.

But either way, we will definitely get a new prime minister and probably it will be Andy Burnham, probably within the next few months.

Alright, so new Prime Minister, what does that mean for wealth taxes?

I think it's really interesting to consider what happens when the new Prime Minister comes in.

So we're in the midst of both a long term and a short term economic crisis of cost of living here in the UK and across the world, our living standards have fallen for a long time.