Gary Stevenson

But obviously, we are now a couple of months into the Iran war, which

the economic impact of that war are delayed and we haven't seen them fully yet.

We start to see prices go up of things like energy and petrol and food, but those prices will continue to go up.

When the new prime minister comes in,

They are going to have to have a story that they tell the public about why living standards are falling and how they are going to stop living standards from falling.

And it's going to be difficult because if it is Burnham, if it is this year, he's going to come into power in the context of living standards about to fall significantly more.

Now, Andy Burnham, for anyone who doesn't know, who is not in, maybe not in the UK, he tends to poll the best of any Labour politician in the country.

Some people say the best of any politician in the country.

So he's currently quite popular and there may be a bouncing popularity of the Labour Party if and when he comes in.

I think it's really interesting to look at what the betting markets have done with regards to the next general election, which is something that I follow closely.

So we've been doing a few videos on this here and there, and Labour's chances of winning the next election fell down to as low as I think 21% at one point.

But in the last few weeks, since it's become clear that Burnham is probably going to be prime minister,

They have basically gone up to about 35%, which puts them neck and neck with reform.

So betting markets think that if Burnham comes in, he could maybe win the next election.

He could maybe beat reform.

But when I think it's important to remember that when Rishi Sunak came in, he was pretty popular.

He had a really good brand for being good with money, which is great because he came in the middle of an economic crisis.

um he really managed to build a lot of economic popularity for giving a lot of money out during covid um he used to work for goldman sachs the very famous investment bank so he had this and of course he's himself like unbelievably wealthy so he had this this image of like he's good with money and people thought he was going to be popular but i predicted he would collapse in popularity because when he came in he

wasn't going to deal with inequality, which means living standards would fall.

And as I predicted, he collapsed in popularity very quickly.