Gordon Carrera

And those border crossing points will be the kind of hubs where people are saying, what's going on?

You know, what are you hearing?

What's happening?

Because that might be one of the only ways of actually kind of getting the information in and out with that shutdown.

But I guess it's about pulling all that together if you're inside the CIA's analytic division to try and kind of come to a truest possible understanding of what's actually going on on the ground.

The NSC, that's the National Security Council where policymakers meet.

So I think there with those questions in mind, let's take a break.

And when we come back, we'll look at maybe the ways in which you can approach trying to answer those questions.

What are the pillars of regime stability?

How might you understand whether they're weakening, whether there might be the potential for collapse?

So we'll see you after the break.

Welcome back.

We've set up what's happened, but let's now look, David, I think, at what will be going on inside the CIA in terms of how they assess the stability of the regime, the kind of techniques, the indicators they'll be using to understand what's going on.

Well, it is slightly different because, of course, MI6 is a collection agency rather than an analytic agency.

That's why the CIA is slightly different.

So the analysis happens in the Joint Intelligence Organization inside the Cabinet Office.

And it's smaller, definitely.

I think...

I guess the one thing they do have is they do have some Iran expertise because we've had this embassy in Tehran.

I mean, I visited it about 20 years ago, but there's been a diplomatic presence.