Greg Ip

But as you said, the devil is in the details.

But as you said, the devil is in the details.

If you look below the surface, you do still see some signs of tariff inflation in things like appliances and other imported goods.

If you look below the surface, you do still see some signs of tariff inflation in things like appliances and other imported goods.

And also, this may come as a surprise to some people, but there's actually several different ways to measure inflation.

And also, this may come as a surprise to some people, but there's actually several different ways to measure inflation.

And the Federal Reserve has its own preferred inflation gauge.

And the Federal Reserve has its own preferred inflation gauge.

And when you actually see how today's report affects that alternative gauge, it suggests inflation might actually be still stuck at around 3%, which is too high for the Fed, which prefers an inflation rate of 2%.

And when you actually see how today's report affects that alternative gauge, it suggests inflation might actually be still stuck at around 3%, which is too high for the Fed, which prefers an inflation rate of 2%.

I think we're actually right around the peak.

I think we're actually right around the peak.

And that, as you suggested, as Powell predicts, we're going to see less and less of that effect as the year unfolds.

And that, as you suggested, as Powell predicts, we're going to see less and less of that effect as the year unfolds.

And you're right, the tariff impact on inflation has been less than most people would have thought about a year ago.

And you're right, the tariff impact on inflation has been less than most people would have thought about a year ago.

I think the average forecast back then was we'd get about a percentage point of tariff inflation.

I think the average forecast back then was we'd get about a percentage point of tariff inflation.

And in fact, we only got about a half a percentage point.

And in fact, we only got about a half a percentage point.