Greg Ip

speaker

395 appearances 7 recordings 4 series first heard Dec 2025 last heard 8 May

Greg Ip’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 7 in all, peaking in Feb 2026 with 2.

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Marketplace · Inside the "biggest deregulatory action in U.S. history" · 13 Feb 2026 podcast

Right.

And if you do that, you come up with an inflation rate of only around 2.5%, which is the lowest for that number since 2021, just after the pandemic.

But as you said, the devil is in the details.

If you look below the surface, you do still see some signs of tariff inflation in things like appliances and other imported goods.

And also, this may come as a surprise to some people, but there's actually several different ways to measure inflation.

And the Federal Reserve has its own preferred inflation gauge.

And when you actually see how today's report affects that alternative gauge, it suggests inflation might actually be still stuck at around 3%, which is too high for the Fed, which prefers an inflation rate of 2%.

I think we're actually right around the peak.

And that, as you suggested, as Powell predicts, we're going to see less and less of that effect as the year unfolds.

And you're right, the tariff impact on inflation has been less than most people would have thought about a year ago.

I think the average forecast back then was we'd get about a percentage point of tariff inflation.

And in fact, we only got about a half a percentage point.

And the good news is, is that we're probably not going to see tariffs going up any longer than

In fact, there is increasing efforts by the Trump administration to pare back tariff increases by cutting deals with particular countries, by reducing the amount of specially sensitive products.

There were reports this week that they're looking to narrow, for example, tariffs on steel and aluminum.

And so as the tariff increases that we had last April, May, June recede into the past, they start to also drop out of our inflation numbers.

And that would be good news for the inflation rate coming down as we get towards the end of this year.

Yeah, well, there's kind of two pieces to that jobs report.

Now, the first piece of that is that we actually revised a lot of the data from prior years.

And we discovered that for the last year and a half, two years, the job market has been way weaker than we first thought.

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