Greg Ip

Chikumba says oil prices are already rising due to the war in the Middle East, which could further strain consumers and retailers alike.

But there are some opportunities for retailers, says Jessica Ramirez of the Consumer Collective.

Those include beauty products and work attire.

Many Americans will also see higher-than-usual tax refunds this year, says Janet Joseph Kloppenberg of JJK Research.

That could provide a temporary boost for retailers.

I'm Daniel Ackerman for Marketplace.

Auto sales flagged late last year and into January.

Now, in the first week of March, consumers are seeing war in the headlines.

That might give consumers pause before buying a new car or pickup, the average price of which topped $50,000 late last year for the first time ever.

Though so far, price alone hasn't dissuaded many buyers, says Carl Brouwer at iccars.com.

I've been amazed at the level of new vehicle sales.

Vehicles have gotten extremely expensive.

and people keep buying them in spite of that.

Rauer says it's an effect of the K-shaped economy.

A lot of people can't afford a new car any longer, but enough can people who are just wealthy, people who are wealthy and their kids aren't wealthy, but they help them out.

You know, they're like, well, I'll help buy you the cars.

Meanwhile, tariffs haven't ended up pushing new vehicle prices much higher, says Michael Brisson at Moody's Analytics.

Automakers, they did eat a lot of the tariffs.

They were coming from a very high profit range, so they were able to take a hit to their margins.

Plus, mortgage rates are down and tax refunds are up, so consumers may have more room in their budgets for a new ride.