Greg Smith

Have a great day, great weekend.

And I hear you're off to the football.

Sorry, I was about to make some funny comment about Kew Gardens RB, now that's tomorrow, what are we doing?

No, they're not.

Actually, the probability has sort of gone to 15% of a hike priced in.

So that's a huge shift from March.

That was when oil was surging at the onset of the conflict.

Markets were pricing at an 80% chance of an increase back then.

But yeah, I think thanks to some messaging from Anna Brayman, the central bank is basically going to look through the initial oil spike.

Economists have been busy recalibrating things.

July is a more likely live meeting, but of course it depends what happens with the conflict.

So an 80% probability then, but yeah, that could change.

I think a really important part of tomorrow, Mike, will be the updated NPS.

So those forecasts of growth, inflation and unemployment are going to dramatically change from February.

downgrades to unemployment and growth and upgrades to inflation most probably.

Real problem is nobody knows how long the oil shock's going to last.

Just worth remembering, this isn't 2022 when households were flush of cash and demand was booming.

Confidence is weak.

It's more like a demand destruction.

shock um in the rbnz they will be worried about second round inflation effects we're already seeing high costs through plastics uh packaging freight fertilizer that'll be next as well and firms are signaling their pricing intentions so i suppose the other issue is psychology inflation spent so long above target they might actually worry that businesses and consumers about to assume we're going to assume that