Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
the newsmakers and the personalities. The big names talk to Mike. The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate. 100% Kiwi owned and operated. News Talk ZB. Morning and welcome today. A read on the economy for you. What have we got?
International events, the cruise season, the surf competition and the government money, the dairy forecast for the new year, as well as the new head of netball and the size of her resurrection job. Joe McKenna's in the EU. Rod Little does the greatest of Britain for us. So welcome to Tuesday, seven past six. I read an article in the Australian press by Niamh O'Connor.
So she wrote of her recent arrest and eviction under the headline, I've been kidnapped for the second time by an increasingly desperate Israel.
Chapter 2: What is the new energy transition scheme introduced by the government?
She, of course, is part of the recent flotilla. who were not kidnapped but detained because what the flotilla does is look to draw international attention to Gaza. This is an industry. If it's not a flotilla, it's the regular weekend demonstrations in places like London. I think on the latest expedition, there are three New Zealanders.
What I wonder about these escapades is do these people ever ask themselves whether they're actually changing anything? I mean, I watched Winston Peters last week being asked about the three Kiwis and what we're doing to help. And he gave the sort of answer foreign ministers do. We've got consular support. We do what we can. But, but, big clue here, they were told not to go.
So what's being sorted here? Answer? Nothing. So then what's the point? How many times do you set sail on a futile cause? This is not to take sides, by the way. It's simply to question the efficiency of movement. It's to wonder aloud, who actually is benefiting from these sojourns? Giving... Nothing in Gaza changes. Are we really dabbling in some self-aggrandisement here?
A big boost on the old self-important front. People down a rabbit hole so deep they don't know how to get out. I'm sure they believe in the cause. I'm sure they would want something to happen. But it doesn't.
Chapter 3: How will the cruise ship season impact New Zealand's economy?
It hasn't. It isn't. You've got the, well, you've got the slightly tricky part.
With Hamas and the locals' seeming acceptance of them operating under hospitals and schools, well, until recently anyway, but even if their purpose is pure and all they want is some water and some schools and a life for the innocent locals, you aren't achieving it by sailing for days, being rounded up and then deported. All Neve literally did was get booted out to write another article.
She told me what I already knew, which is not to dismiss Gaza, of course, and the plight of its people. It's a mess. But that's not news. And redrawing our attention to it doesn't make it new news. If something materially changed, you could claim victory, has it? No. So a flotilla and a newspaper article. How does that help? News of the world in 90 seconds.
Right, the potential Iran deal has got super interesting. Can I introduce you to the Abraham Accords? But Marco doesn't want you, by the way, to hold your breath.
As the president said, he's not in a hurry. He's not going to make a bad deal. I mean, the president's not going to make a bad agreement. So... Let's see what happens.
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Chapter 4: What insights does Kiwibank CEO Steve Jurkovich provide about the economic outlook?
We're going to give diplomacy every chance to succeed before we explore the alternatives.
The Iranians say good progress has been made, but... Politics and decision-making in the United States are experiencing a kind of institutionalized instability. We are witnessing frequent changes in positions that within a few hours you will encounter different and in many cases contradictory views.
Yeah, that's where the Abraham Accords come in, so I'll come back to that in a short while because it is interesting. Staying with politics, we are in Maine. Super interesting there as well, Senate race. Democrat Graham Plattner, he's leading incumbent Republican Susan Collins.
we will not just fight the oligarchy we will defeat the oligarchy and the political system that it maintains no one is coming to save us we need a political revolution now in scotland nicholas uh nicholas old hubby uh and party money man has pleaded guilty to actually nicking the money so he's standing by for a sentence the party's in dismay this is an admission of a terrible breach of trust
and an overwhelming betrayal by the man entrusted to be the party's chief executive. I share the overwhelming anger felt by SNP members.
The Pope's decided to have a word about AI.
Artificial intelligence needs to be disarmed. The word is strong, I know, but deliberately chosen because this moment needs words capable of attracting attention, awakening consciences, and indicating paths forward for humanity.
Sorry, I don't want to interrupt the Pope. That's against the rules. And it's only May, but the records are being shattered in Britain, particularly in the South.
We've seen some areas in parts of Europe 10 to 15 degrees above where they should be for this time of year. It's very unusual in the UK to see temperatures of 30 degrees in May.
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Chapter 5: What plans does Netball NZ's new CEO have for the sport's future?
So that's a huge shift from March. That was when oil was surging at the onset of the conflict. Markets were pricing at an 80% chance of an increase back then. But yeah, I think thanks to some messaging from Anna Brayman, the central bank is basically going to look through the initial oil spike. Economists have been busy recalibrating things.
July is a more likely live meeting, but of course it depends what happens with the conflict. So an 80% probability then, but yeah, that could change. I think a really important part of tomorrow, Mike, will be the updated NPS. So those forecasts of growth, inflation and unemployment are going to dramatically change from February.
downgrades to unemployment and growth and upgrades to inflation most probably. Real problem is nobody knows how long the oil shock's going to last. Just worth remembering, this isn't 2022 when households were flush of cash and demand was booming. Confidence is weak. It's more like a demand destruction.
shock um in the rbnz they will be worried about second round inflation effects we're already seeing high costs through plastics uh packaging freight fertilizer that'll be next as well and firms are signaling their pricing intentions so i suppose the other issue is psychology inflation spent so long above target they might actually worry that businesses and consumers about to assume we're going to assume that
Inflation isn't normal again in terms of higher levels. And it'll be also interesting, Mike, to see whether the vote splits. There's a growing expectation there could be dissenting members arguing for a hike. But they might be getting ahead of themselves depending on what happens over in Iran. But, yeah, we'll see.
OK. And then we come to ā I was sad to hear this. Mind you, not surprising the way we build things around the world. But Project Sunrise, this is Sydney to London, Sydney to New York, et cetera. That's been delayed.
Yeah, that's another delay for this ultra-long-haul flight, basically due to Airbus pushing back the delivery of the first long-range A350 to April 2027. So yeah, London to New York flights non-stop, unlikely to be until then. So Airbus are blamed ongoing supply chain disruptions, worsened by the conflict in the Middle East.
um this was a project unveiled a decade ago so it's been going on a while so especially considered configured planes uh it's allowing allowing airlines to bypass stopover hubs like dubai and doha which is probably pretty appropriate at the moment and uh yeah probably makes the case for non-stop flying even more important uh plenty of airlines are sort of looking how this all sort of plays out uh quanta say reckons that the planes should quickly be in service by the end of 2027 for around about five five of them
So investors still see Project Sunrise as the crown jewel in their $15 billion renewal, and they reckon it could add around $400 million AUD a year in earnings. So, yeah, the math is simple. 40% would be dedicated to first business and premium economy, so more premium travellers, higher margin, higher mix on their fleet. Other airlines are watching this closely.
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Chapter 6: How is the business events industry recovering post-pandemic?
Singapore's on fire.
Singapore is going really well. And yeah, riding the AI boom, first quarter GDP, that was up a strong and expected 1% against a 0.3% contraction expected. So that was on a quarterly basis. Annual growth, 6%.
six percent advance estimates were 4.6 so they absolutely smashed it they're really just riding the global ai investment cycle semiconductors uh digital services and the like uh in fact it's actually helped the singapore market overtake indonesia southeast asia's largest stock market uh also there's a bit of a safe haven appeal political stability stronger currency of course in addition to ai and the uh
Singapore marketers valued around $650 billion. Indonesia, that's gone the other way. Investors are exiting that a little bit. That's probably helped. Also, Singapore Central Bank, we're pointing out they were the first in Asia to tighten policy after the Middle East conflict. They pushed up inflation risks. But as you point out, inflation came in at one point.
8% versus 2% expected and core 1.4%. They have warned of risks to the downside in terms of growth and upside for energy prices. The strategy moves. We know that's really important for them. Lots of LNG and oil flowing through on its way to Singapore, which is one of the largest oil trading and refining hubs. So we'll have to see whether a deal is reached.
But if you look at some ship tracking data, that was interesting, three LNG tankers were have recently made it through the Strait of Hormuz. So let's see what happens. I like it. What are the numbers? So the U.S. markets and the U.K. markets are having a little holiday, so they're closed. The stocks, 600 in Europe, up 1%, 631. That is a record. Nikkei up 2.9%, 65158.
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Chapter 7: What are the implications of the government's gas transition loan scheme for businesses?
That is also a record. ASX 200, that's up 0.4%, 8692. NZX 50, down 0.2%, 12970. Currency markets, the key was up 0.4% against the US, 58.7%. Against the Australian dollar, we're 81.9%, down 0.3%. British pound, we're 43.5%, down 0.2%. Japanese year, 93.3%, up 0.3%. Gold, up $60, 4570 an ounce. Oil, we are looking at that. Well, it's down $7.40 as Brent and 96.14.
Energy markets think we are close to at hand with a deal. Let's see about that. And big day locally, Mike. We've got Fish and Picle Healthcare, Ryman and Infertile with results.
You have a great day. Greg Smith out of Generate, your wealth and KiwiSaver specialist. Another IPO, if you're interested, confidentially filed at the Securities and Exchange Commission on track to surpass 5 million paid members this quarter. Who am I talking about? Aura, as in the Aura ring. They've got a market cap currently of about $11 billion.
So if you're into your fitness and all that sort of thing and you think it's going somewhere, you might be able to invest your money shortly. 6.21 and a half here at Newstalk ZB. The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB. Now, this is the twist in the tale for this so-called Iran deal.
Trump's trying it on with the Iranians, and this is why they're complaining that things keep changing. So this is where the Abraham Accords come in. What he wants is Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan to join the Abraham Accords. And otherwise, you normalize relations with Israel. So he's not only trying to cut a deal between the U.S. and Iran and Iran generally in the world.
but he's trying to hook in the UAE so that they can normalise relations with Israel. So it's a major peace plan. If he pulls it off, it'll be quite something. But that's where the delay is at the moment, apparently. 6.25. Trending now with Chemist Warehouse. May mayhem sail on now.
Memorial Day in America, of course, speeches from the politicians, wreath layings, remembrances for the 13 soldiers killed so far in epic fury. But the star of this year's show, 98-year-old World War II veteran David Yoho.
Tell them about us. Tell them about veterans and say to them, we gave up our yesterdays for your tomorrows. And if they say to you then, who did you hear speak these words, tell them, it was a 16-year-old boy in the heart and mind and body of a 98-year-old veteran of World War II.
16-year-old reference. He signed up at the age of 16 when they lowered the age because they needed the manpower. Of course, he was standing at the National War Memorial in D.C. at the eastern end by the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool. I don't know if Trump's pool guys got to the blue bit yet, but that's where he was. Very disappointing. Yes, so that sunrise thing, it's the Project Sunrise.
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Chapter 8: How does the recent data reflect on New Zealand's economic state?
And so, I mean, you're inevitably going to get a delay. I mean, Airbus couldn't build anything, but they'll get there eventually. But it was inevitably going to be delayed. But the idea of jumping on a plane in Sydney and landing in London or landing in New York in one go. is quite the thing. These planes are going to be able to fly for 22 hours. It's breaking through a new barrier.
If you think 17 to Dubai is a long way, try 22. And I just wonder, and this is what makes it so fascinating in my humble opinion, is I just wonder if we're on the edge of what the human body can tolerate. Because a lot of people say 17 to Dubai is nothing.
they can handle it but a lot of people say too far one step too far uh whereas can you go 22 you know in other words can you literally go from one point of the earth to another in one hop it's either revolutionary or it's a bridge too far which what which is the bit that makes it interesting as far as i can work out meantime back on the land more forecasts around dairy good news on that shortly
In a noisy world, hear yourself think. It's the Mike Hosking Breakfast with Aveda Retirement Communities. Life your way. We should have mentioned this earlier, that guy Plantner who's leading Susan Collins in the main race, the Senate race, 48 to 41, so there's a seven point gap. He's a bit rogue. He's got a Nazi tattoo and he says a couple of random things.
That's probably why they like him, to be honest. 23 minutes away from 7. We'll go to Jo. She's doing the business in Italy for us this morning. Back here meantime, the dairy train rolls on at Rabobanker, right? They think the 26-27 season looks promising. Milk price between 9.50 and 10, they reckon. The current season wraps up shortly, of course. That's going to be the biggest one on record.
John Stevenson is the Fonterra Cooperative Council chair and is back with us. John, very good morning to you. Now, how long have you been around in the industry and where do these current times sit? I mean, are we in historic times?
Oh, I certainly think so. In terms of returns, Mike, there's no doubt that it's a... it's a good time. We've seen strong milk prices. We've also, for Fonterra Farm, have seen strong returns on our shares. The thing to look out for, though, is the input costs, which are continuing to creep up.
So you cover all of those things that Rabo does. Now, would you agree with Rabo going forward? $9.50, $10 feels about right-ish as we sit here this late May morning?
Certainly, looking at everything out there, future of the trading around $9.70, $9.80 for next year, that's
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