John Stevenson
speaker
50 appearances
3 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2026
last heard 14 Sep
John Stevenson’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 3 in all, peaking in May 2026 with 2.
Appearances
Yeah, I think we've seen a couple of years of high prices that have encouraged milk production internationally.
Um, but then we've seen some environmental conditions constrain feed supplies overseas.
Um I think the broad expectation is to see a bit of a rationalization in um production overseas and and of course we've got uh a forecast super El Nino here.
hard to spend a day without hearing about the Super El Nino Mike, but um you know, I think as farmers we've seen really dry summers before.
Um, you know, what I'm hearing around the traps is that people are preparing for the worst and and hoping for the best, so we're we're locking in extra feed and and doing what we can, but but certainly if we do see a a prolonged dry spell over the summer here it will impact New Zealand production, there's no doubt about that.
Yes, but the thing to watch is the the input costs.
Um I just checked it again this morning.
We've seen fertilizer import values uh as sought in that report rise forty six percent year on year and the the break even milk price has just been updated to eight dollars ninety two.
So if you look at the delta between that and nine twenty five, um noting that we've seen fifty cents come off it early in the season, um, you know, we we would want to see some up.
Soil Native Farmers.
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I certainly think so.
In terms of returns, Mike, there's no doubt that it's a...
It's a good time.
We've seen strong milk prices.
We've also, for Fonterra Farm, have seen strong returns on our shares.
The thing to look out for, though, is the input costs, which are continuing to creep up.
Certainly, looking at everything out there, future of the trading around 9.70, 9.80 for next year, that's
That seems about right, but hey look, the Fonterra boards make the decision on that.
They have a lot more information than us, so we'll leave that to them on Thursday.
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