John Stevenson: Fonterra Co-operative Council Chair on global milk production growth slowing
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What does the latest Rabobank report say about global milk production growth?
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How are high milk prices influencing farmer decisions in New Zealand?
Have you thought the dairy story for New Zealand couldn't get much better? I've got news for you, and it's good news. New Rabobank report reckons the final twenty six, twenty seven price could land closer to ten dollars a kg. That's after Fonterra cut that midpoint down to nine twenty five in July. Global milk supply might get squeezed, they reckon. Uh so demand though, holding up. So you've got same people wanting the milk but not as much milk. John Stevenson, Fonterra Cooperative Council Chair, is back with
Will the forecasted super El Niño affect New Zealand’s dairy supply?
John Morning to you. Good morning, Mike. Do you see broadly what Rabo sees here? They on the money here.
Yeah, I think we've seen a couple of years of high prices that have encouraged milk production internationally. Um, but then we've seen some environmental conditions constrain feed supplies overseas. Um I think the broad expectation is to see a bit of a rationalization in um production overseas and and of course we've got uh a forecast super El Nino here.
Yeah, what's your what's the farming community's read on this El Nino?
What are the input‑cost pressures facing farmers as milk prices rise?
One, is it going to happen? And two, if it does, what's the effect on us or we don't know? It's certainly
hard to spend a day without hearing about the Super El Nino Mike, but um you know, I think as farmers we've seen really dry summers before. Um, you know, what I'm hearing around the traps is that people are preparing for the worst and and hoping for the best, so we're we're locking in extra feed and and doing what we can, but but certainly if we do see a a prolonged dry spell over the summer here it will impact New Zealand production, there's no doubt about that.
If we get to ten dollars, is everyone basically making money?
Yes, but the thing to watch is the the input costs. Um I just checked it again this morning. We've seen fertilizer import values uh as sought in that report rise forty six percent year on year and the the break even milk price has just been updated to eight dollars ninety two.
What break‑even milk price are farmers targeting and why does it matter?
So if you look at the delta between that and nine twenty five, um noting that we've seen fifty cents come off it early in the season, um, you know, we we would want to see some up. Soil Native Farmers.
So you're gonna need you're gonna need ten and if if not more. All right, well I wish you the best with it. I hope it works out well. John Stevenson, Frontiera Cooperative uh Council Chair this morning.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What does the latest Rabobank report say about global milk production growth?
0:01–0:30
2
How are high milk prices influencing farmer decisions in New Zealand?
0:30–0:55
3
Will the forecasted super El Niño affect New Zealand’s dairy supply?
0:55–1:26
4
What are the input‑cost pressures facing farmers as milk prices rise?
1:26–2:16
5
What break‑even milk price are farmers targeting and why does it matter?
2:16–2:43
Speakers
2 identifiedMore from The Mike Hosking Breakfast
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