Tobias Tohill: UVisa Immigration Advisor on net migration hitting highest level in two years at 20,300
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What are the latest net migration numbers for New Zealand and how do they compare to previous years?
We got the immigration picture yesterday. Net gain rose to twenty thousand three hundred. This is the year to July, which is more than double a year ago. Arrivals are up five percent, departures fell four percent. Tobias Tohill is the director licensed immigration advisor at UVisa and is uh with us on the programme. Tobias, morning to you. Good morning, how are you? Very well indeed. Is this a trend? We're on the right direction.
Yeah, we are. Um, things are actually improving.
Why is the flow of New Zealanders moving to Australia decreasing and what does that mean for the long‑term trend?
Um, I had a look at some of the statistics um on when we're at to from estimates to June rather than to December last year, which is the number you quoted there. And it looks like things are actually improving further. Um New Zealanders uh going to Australia is actually es estimated to be down seventeen percent in the year to June. Good. Um and net migration's actually increased even further, uh a little bit above the five percent. Um so overall and the the campaign that that they've run to try and attract students is working really well. So student numbers are the the primary driver of net migration coming up before. Yeah, exactly. Let me come back to the student. Let me come back to the
students in just a moment, but your point's a very important one. H is the Australia tide turning?
Yeah,
it is.
How are student arrivals driving the recent rise in net migration and what policies are supporting them?
Um if you if you look at um the historically about sixty four percent of New Zealanders when they leave they go to Australia. Um and that's actually below that the the number of Austral New Zealanders leaving them at the moment is not sixty four percent to Australia, it's less than that. So it's just general departures are, you know, on track for what they're normally at. But the ones to Australia have fallen below the long time average. Um and Overall I think um we've got where is it? I've got a few statistics I'm looking up 'cause I had to look at Statistics New Zealand to understand what's going on. I like a well paid guess. Thank you. And and I think um we're we're looking at something like um overall twenty four thousand um people um in in total to Australia compared to a long term average of thirty thousand.
Mm-hmm. So that's actually a good number.
What challenges do international students face in finding skilled work after graduation?
It was low from twenty two thousand and uh fourteen to two thousand nineteen. The average uh um was only three thousand to Australia. It was a very low period. But the long term average if you're looking back to two thousand and four to two thousand thirteen, it was typically about thirty thousand people a year. So looking at sort of long term trends, New Zealand's doing well um and and not not having people leave to Australia.
Those students Really encouraging. Yeah, it is encouraging. Couldn't agree more. Those students that are coming in, one is that good, too, I assume it is because they pay for their study and that's all to the bottom line. But is the visa situation sorted out so they don't sort of dovetail on to jobs that don't really exist and just hang around being a drain? Talking to recruiters
who are um constantly being hit up by masters graduates who can't find work and don't know what to do.
Why are low‑skill jobs like gas‑station or hospitality roles considered a dead‑end for new migrants?
Um, I would say that yes, they're they're not just sliding into low end jobs, they're looking for professional work and It is difficult for some of them to find professional work. Um, and they're heading back home. So I think it's tough for some of the students who come who aren't actually really j well jobs market ready. But the flip side is that is that we're not just employing people into gas station jobs and things like that anymore. The message to students is you have to get skilled work, you have to get a decent wage to be able to stay. And so the students on graduation are trying to find skilled work rather than trying to find sort of Yeah, um pumping gas jobs or or you know, um uh hospitality service jobs 'cause those are a dead end.
Exactly. They are indeed. Tobias, thank you. Good to have you on the programme again.
What are the key takeaways from Tobias Tohill on New Zealand’s immigration outlook?
Tobias Tohill, director and licensed immigration advisor at UVs. Does anyone actually pump gas anymore as a job?
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What are the latest net migration numbers for New Zealand and how do they compare to previous years?
0:00–0:23
2
Why is the flow of New Zealanders moving to Australia decreasing and what does that mean for the long‑term trend?
0:23–1:03
3
How are student arrivals driving the recent rise in net migration and what policies are supporting them?
1:03–1:54
4
What challenges do international students face in finding skilled work after graduation?
1:54–2:40
5
Why are low‑skill jobs like gas‑station or hospitality roles considered a dead‑end for new migrants?
2:40–3:21
6
What are the key takeaways from Tobias Tohill on New Zealand’s immigration outlook?
3:21–3:35
Speakers
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