Anand Menon: King's College European Politics and Foreign Affairs Professor on the leaders of Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland pushing for independence from UK
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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We may have a moment in history unfolding in the UK.
Why are the leaders of Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland pushing for independence now?
For the first time, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland all have First Ministers who want to leave the United Kingdom. They met overnight to talk cooperation and constitutional change. Anno Menon is the professor in European Pol Politics and Foreign Affairs at King's College London, and he's back with us on the programme. And morning to you. How are you doing? Very well indeed. Westminster's time is coming to an end, they stated. Is that true?
Well, I think what is true is all three of them are very keen at a minimum to see their own devolved nations get more power and more power from Westminster. So in that sense They're united in the message. Uh and it's a real sort of
How does the new cooperation agreement between the three First Ministers challenge Westminster?
political challenge for Andy Burnham, partly because his rhetoric as Prime Minister so far has been very English. So he talks about devolution, but he talks about it in an English context, not in terms of Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland. And I think the problem he has is in all those three countries now we have governments that are nationalist and looking to get more power away from Westminster.
Would he be against devoluting
towards them? Uh well, the the early sounds we've heard from the Welsh Secretary and the Scottish Secretary is they're not convinced of the case for giving more power to the Scottish Government or the Welsh Government. Uh we'll have to wait and see. That might develop over time. It's still quite early days for the Burnham Government as yet. Uh what Burnham has talked about is devolving more power away from Westminster to the English regions, and he's hinted that he'd like to see the Scottish Government give more power away within Scotland. The problem, of course, is under our devo devolution settlement, that's not his decision, that's up to the Scottish Government.
Exactly. Does this do you think, whether Scotland, Wales or Ireland or all three or two or whatever, does it go eventually to some sort of vote? And if it did, would it get up?
Well, all three situations are very different.
What are the differences in independence ambitions between Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?
So if you take Wales first, the Welsh nationalist government under Plyde Cymru that were elected in the Sened, which is the Welsh parliament elections in May, deliberately downplayed independence because the Welsh people don't prioritise independence. They ran on a campaign of standard of living, cost of living, things like that. So it's not a live debate in Wales at the moment, independence. In Scotland it's very, very different. The SNP have said they want to have another referendum. The English, the British government have said we it's up to us to give you permission and we have no intention of giving you permission to have that poll. In Northern Ireland, under the Good Friday Agreement, it depends on whether there is a settled majority in favour of unification.
There's no such settled majority as yet, so there's no prospect of a vote. Though I should add that there's very little doubt that Brexit Brexit and its aftermath increased interest in the idea of a United Island.
What would your gut feel? See, Scotland we've got form on, they've had a vote and it didn't get through. Would your gut suggest to you if the vote was held in Scotland say tomorrow it's would stand a reasonable chance of getting up?
I mean it's really hard to say. If you think about the last campaign for the Scottish referendum, it was a long campaign.
How is Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s devolution strategy affecting the nationalist parties?
There were two years worth of campaigning. And the polls went from something like twenty five percent in favour of independence up to forty five percent. So it depends on the nature of the campaign, it depends what's happening during the campaign.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–0:33
2
Why are the leaders of Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland pushing for independence now?
0:33–1:13
3
How does the new cooperation agreement between the three First Ministers challenge Westminster?
1:13–2:25
4
What are the differences in independence ambitions between Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland?
2:25–3:36
5
How is Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s devolution strategy affecting the nationalist parties?
3:36–4:38
6
What would a future independence referendum look like in each nation and could it succeed?
4:38–5:13
7
Which practical issues (money, military, pensions) would arise if a region voted to leave the UK?
5:13–5:52
8
What does Anand Menon predict for the long‑term political rumble between the UK and its nations?
5:52–6:08
Speakers
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