Greg Smith

Yeah, a rate hike again next week looks certain.

So as you point out, inflation's flared up again.

It's put them on a tightening path.

So highest level since 2023, 4.6 at the headline, way above their target band 2.3.

The core measure, though, was interesting, 3.5%, still uncomfortably high.

Now perhaps something there didn't move higher than perhaps it could have.

Quarterly core inflation, it was softer than expected, 0.8%.

In terms of what's driving it, fuel's the big story.

Petrol prices surged 33% in the month.

That's the biggest jump on record.

So adding to inflation, as you say, it was already a problem before the war, and that's a key difference versus us.

Housing costs up 6.5%, transport up 8.9%, electricity up over 25%.

So, yeah, we're going to get that rate hike next week to 4.35%.

But I suppose the big thing will be the commentary and to what extent rates increase beyond that.

So expectations for that has actually pulled back a little bit on the softer core rebate.

Yeah, like other central banks, the RBA is in a classic dilemma.

Inflation rising, growth and confidence weakening.

But the difference is that the oil shock has landed on an already hot economy.

Overnight from the States, what did we get?

So a couple to focus in on I thought was Visa was a really interesting one.