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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
Opinionated. Informed. Unapologetic. The Mike Hosking Breakfast. With Bailey's Real Estate. All together better across residential, commercial and rural. News Talk ZB.
Welcome to the Australian Inflation Warning as their number rockets to 4.6. Good news, a small business here remains successful with sales up. The money's raining down for New Zealand football as well. Record payout for qualifying for the World Cup.
Chapter 2: What are the implications of Australia's rising inflation on New Zealand?
Gin Wigmore in for a catch up after eight. Joe McKenna in Rome. Rod Little has all the good stuff in Britain as well.
feeling good for thursday welcome to it seven past six we would like to thank australia this morning in fact for their inflation rate of 4.6 percent it's an unmitigated disaster obviously the war's playing its part as it is in most economies but the lesson here and this surely is where we can start to feel a little bit proud is in what shape were you when trump started bombing that fateful saturday morning inflation wise we were a lot better off than australia australia is lucky it does a
They have a government, a left-leaning Labour government that cannot help itself but spend money it doesn't have, and the war wasn't going to stop that particular obsession. They have discounted fuel, they have offered deals to trucking firms, all the sorts of stuff that has been asked for here and indeed all over the world. They've done it with a debt pile already approaching a trillion dollars.
They've done it amid an already established debate over government spending adding to inflation. Their central government, their federal government, is to their economy what power companies and councils are to ours. They're fiscally hopeless. When power got expensive in Australia, they simply subsidised it, and that added to inflation.
Chapter 3: What new ventures has Kiwi singer Gin Wigmore undertaken since returning to New Zealand?
When the bombs fell in Tehran, they gave Porsche drivers cheaper petrol, which added to inflation. They eventually have to take all that off, of course. They've just done that with the power subsidies. Otherwise, the latest inflation figure would be even worse. But once you are hooked on the habit of free money, the expectation is created. Fortunately here, although I'm sure it would be popular...
We've avoided that particular catastrophe in that we give a shout out to the Labour government of 2017 through 2023, who pretty much blew the place apart economically with an amount of free dosh that made the eyes water. Aided and abetted, of course, by the Reserve Bank, they came close to ruining the joint.
And so with that fresh in our minds, with the IRD now currently closing down the businesses that took the money but could never pay it back,
we still remember what dumb economics looks like and that's why our inflation rate isn't what theirs is and thank the good lord most likely never will be news of the world in 90 seconds you can see yet again why london has the reputation that does another nutter more knives more anti-semitism a terror event and two victims now is the time to ask some difficult questions
Why don't we see more condemnation of the attacks we've seen in recent weeks? Where are all the voices against hate? And where is the solidarity with fellow Londoners who are being targeted simply for who they are? Local MP turned up, not that the locals were impressed. I just want to add a few words. Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame! Well done.
Zakir did what he always does. There is now a police investigation and I think we all need to do everything we can to support that investigation and be absolutely clear in our determination to deal with any of these offences, the like of which we've seen too much recently.
You need to consider whether both organized and unorganized terrorism of this kind is being allowed to develop out of a political atmosphere towards Jews in radicalized sections of the community. State side, Pete Hegseth has been in front of the Armed Services Committee doing what Pete does best.
And you talk to colonels and majors and staff sergeants and two-star generals, and you ask them about the environment of our military right now and its capabilities right now, compared to under the Biden administration, under Obama, they will tell you it is night and day.
Democrats speak for many Americans, though. Commodity markets have stopped listening to the happy talk, and crude oil prices this morning have risen to the highest level since the war in Ukraine started in 2022. AAA reported this morning that the average price of gas is $4.30 a gallon, up 30 cents in one week. Exactly, and that's before we get to the mortgages. I'll give you that in a moment.
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Chapter 4: How is the Cancer Society advocating for skin cancer prevention?
Baggage handlers. So they're going to move the luggage and the cargo on tarmac. They got their job cut out, though, because the human versions, if you've ever flown JAL, human versions are famous for wiping down luggage and perfectly aligning it all on the conveyors. They're brilliant. The robots will need charging every two to three hours.
But if it works, JAL is going to roll them out on cleaning the cabins, apparently. News of the world in 90. Yeah, America, Comey surrendered. And he's turned up in federal court. Eastern District of Virginia briefly placed under arrest. The whole thing only took 10 minutes, so that's yet to unfold. Walsh looks like a go for the Fed Senate Banking Committee voted to advance his nomination.
13-11 along party lines. So that heads to the Senate and the Republicans, of course, have the numbers there for him to become the Fed chair. 12 past six.
The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB.
And this is what's killing Trump, apart from the gas prices. Of course, mortgages now up 30-year fixed, up to 645, which is 21% higher year on year. And there's only one man to blame, 15 past six. Jen, no rate. Greg Smith, morning. Good morning, Mike. Anna Bramman, she was in Hamilton yesterday, gave the speech. She still sees growth. I was kind of encouraged by what she had to say.
Yeah, I think there were some encouraging aspects. Obviously, we're going to hear from the main man in about 15 minutes, Jerome Powell. But, yeah, she had the chance to speak yesterday. Talked about the central bank walking a tightrope, I suppose, not alone. Inflation is back above target, although not... No idea where the Aussies are, we'll get to that in a minute.
But yeah, look, head-on inflation, 3.1%, it's above their band, but she's downplaying it as a largely fuel-driven event, not broad-based. So core inflation, that's stable, that's the key signal, so that's encouraging. They're looking through the oil shock, that's encouraging. We don't know where the war's going to go, of course.
And she said that holding the OCR at 2.25% reflects a balancing act, not overreacting. So, look, no real surprises, but I think yesterday it was Michael's about the consistency of the message. The market still has a clear tightening bias, looking at one potentially in May and certainly July. So that's building. Depends on where the Middle East goes, of course.
I thought the other interesting point on the same day was if you look at the actual... reality for households. So we know where the CPI is at, but Stats New Zealand released the household living cost price indices, and they showed the cost of living is up just 2.1% in the year to March. That's obviously well below CPI. Now, the difference is measurement.
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Chapter 5: What is the current state of the New Zealand economy compared to Australia?
And then, meanwhile, we've got plenty of pressure points, haven't we? Petrol, power and health care are all rising sharply. And that's Certainly impacting lower-income households a bit harder than others. So, yeah, certainly tension there, Mike. A lot depends, I'm assuming, where the war goes and how long it takes before that ends.
But, yeah, for now, they see inflation as temporary at the RB, does Anna Brayman, and some steady cost of living pressures.
And the RBI in Australia, I think they go Tuesday, and they will go, won't they? There's no question there's a rate rise coming.
Yeah, a rate hike again next week looks certain. So as you point out, inflation's flared up again. It's put them on a tightening path.
Chapter 6: How does the government plan to handle the rising cost of living?
So highest level since 2023, 4.6 at the headline, way above their target band 2.3. The core measure, though, was interesting, 3.5%, still uncomfortably high. Now perhaps something there didn't move higher than perhaps it could have. Quarterly core inflation, it was softer than expected, 0.8%. In terms of what's driving it, fuel's the big story. Petrol prices surged 33% in the month.
That's the biggest jump on record. So adding to inflation, as you say, it was already a problem before the war, and that's a key difference versus us. Housing costs up 6.5%, transport up 8.9%, electricity up over 25%. So, yeah, we're going to get that rate hike next week to 4.35%. But I suppose the big thing will be the commentary and to what extent rates increase beyond that.
So expectations for that has actually pulled back a little bit on the softer core rebate. Yeah, like other central banks, the RBA is in a classic dilemma. Inflation rising, growth and confidence weakening. But the difference is that the oil shock has landed on an already hot economy.
Yeah, exactly.
Overnight from the States, what did we get? So a couple to focus in on I thought was Visa was a really interesting one. So obviously cost of living pressures globally, but they're doing pretty well. We're still spending well on things anyway. So revenue there, $11.2 billion up 17%. That's the strongest growth since 2022. Net income, 32% higher, $6 billion.
Payments volume, 9% higher, $3.7 trillion. Process transactions up by the same, $66 billion. So we're spending on lots of stuff. Obviously, the pump as well is a pretty big driver. But yeah, they've returned capital aggressively, $7.9 billion repurchases, $1.3 billion in dividends, and they're going to repurchase another $20 billion. And they also lifted their full-year revenue growth guidance.
So yeah, payments networks, they're a pretty good gauge on economic activity and so far consumer spending. So investors like that, shares jumped 8%, although it does seem like travel spend is biting a little bit. So we've got Booking.com, the travel engine, they had earnings above expectations, revenue up 16%, but they cut their outlook. They see four-year revenue growth in high single digits.
That's down from low double digits. And they say travel disruption is spreading beyond the Middle East and affecting major transit routes like some Europe and Asia. So I thought that was interesting. Similar message as well from Hilton, although it sees strong growth in the U.S., offsetting weakness elsewhere.
Okay. Give us the numbers.
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Chapter 7: What are the latest updates on interest rates and inflation?
See you tomorrow. Greg Smith out of Generate Wealth and KiwiSaver Specialists.
globally yum brands that's your taco bells pizza huts and all that sort of stuff they had a good result taco bells driving that for them astrazeneca and gsk uh they did well britain's largest pharmaceutical companies ubs and banking three billion dollars worth of profit just for the first quarter and procter and gamble they had a big earnings beat as well so so far in reporting season people seem to be generally speaking going pretty well 621 here at news talk zb
The Mike Hosking Breakfast full show podcast on iHeartRadio, powered by Newstalk ZB.
Mike, did Winston tip someone off to lodge an OIA? No politician ever releases war correspondence while the war is still raging. Well, the war's not raging. Luxon should sack Peters. If you're not up on this, I've got the PM's office has been in touch with us this morning, so more shortly. 6.25.
Trending now with Chemist Warehouse, the real house of fragrances.
I loved yesterday. I mean, the King seems to have wowed the Americans. He's such a classic mix of statesmanship, history and humour. State dinner last night included his line aimed at Trump, of course, for his comment on the EU troops and their reliance on the US.
You recently commented, Mr President, that if it were not for the United States, European countries would be speaking German. Dare I say that if it wasn't for us, you'd be speaking French. I loved it. There was the Winston Churchill story.
Indeed, such was the closeness that Sir Winston, while staying here in the White House, in those rooms you showed us upstairs, emerged naked from the bathtub to discover the door opening as President Roosevelt came in for a chat. With rapier wit, the President cast aside any embarrassment by declaring that the Prime Minister has nothing to conceal from the President of the United States. LAUGHTER
He also brought up the ballroom.
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Chapter 8: What are the upcoming projects and music releases from Gin Wigmore?
Not bad. But that's because the government has suppressed the excise duty. If that wasn't in place, we'd be up at around... €2.30 a litre.
Jeez. And are people appreciative of that? Because it's not like you've got any money, Jo. It's not like you're running a massive surplus there, is it?
No. I mean, as we've talked about many times, the country's debt situation is not good and they're in trouble with the European Union because the budget estimates for the next year are way above the 3% limit for the EU.
And what about the billion dollars that you've got to help hiring bonuses? Where's the billion coming from? You're just filming that in the money tree as well, are you? Yeah.
I mean, I was surprised when I saw that the government has approved a 934 million euro labor decree hiring bonuses for young people, women and workers in troubled economic areas. incentives to hire these people. I don't know that that's going to make a difference. And I'll tell you why.
When you hire someone initially, it's really, really difficult to get rid of them if they're not up to scratch. And I think most employers would be very nervous about hiring people even with these kinds of incentives.
And do you have the same debate many Europeans seem to have? So are there a lot of young people just loafing about the place or people who, you know, taking benefits and stuff and could work but don't, so therefore it's filled by immigrants and therefore that fuels or stokes the immigrant debate, etc. ?
Well, I don't think there are a lot of government handouts for people who are not working. If they're not working, they're probably protected and taken care of by their families. Having said that, I think young people are very frustrated. They are looking for opportunities which don't exist here. They're still leaving the country because there's not enough here.
And migrants are certainly filling those jobs that nobody wants to do, that's for sure.
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