Heather Long

Yes, that's the big question. I'm on a scale of 1 to 10. I'm probably somewhere around a 5 or 6 now, which is way higher. If we had this conversation in January, I think I would have been like a 2. So it just shows you how much it's jumped up. You can pick your favorite economist. I think JP Morgan put the recession odds at 40%. Larry Summers was at 50%.

Yes, that's the big question. I'm on a scale of 1 to 10. I'm probably somewhere around a 5 or 6 now, which is way higher. If we had this conversation in January, I think I would have been like a 2. So it just shows you how much it's jumped up. You can pick your favorite economist. I think JP Morgan put the recession odds at 40%. Larry Summers was at 50%.

Yes, that's the big question. I'm on a scale of 1 to 10. I'm probably somewhere around a 5 or 6 now, which is way higher. If we had this conversation in January, I think I would have been like a 2. So it just shows you how much it's jumped up. You can pick your favorite economist. I think JP Morgan put the recession odds at 40%. Larry Summers was at 50%.

Goldman Sachs still pretty conservative around 20 to 25%. But everyone agrees the recession risks have really gone up.

Goldman Sachs still pretty conservative around 20 to 25%. But everyone agrees the recession risks have really gone up.

Goldman Sachs still pretty conservative around 20 to 25%. But everyone agrees the recession risks have really gone up.

I'm Heather Long, an economic columnist at The Washington Post.

I'm Heather Long, an economic columnist at The Washington Post.

I'm Heather Long, an economic columnist at The Washington Post.

Yes. Yes, there are. Traditionally, it's the unemployment rate jumping up a lot. People are keeping a close eye on the early signs of that. The other one that I'm keeping a close eye on is is consumption, retail spending. And in particular, I've been watching the normally very dull earnings reports from the companies, but I think the companies are being pretty explicit.

Yes. Yes, there are. Traditionally, it's the unemployment rate jumping up a lot. People are keeping a close eye on the early signs of that. The other one that I'm keeping a close eye on is is consumption, retail spending. And in particular, I've been watching the normally very dull earnings reports from the companies, but I think the companies are being pretty explicit.

Yes. Yes, there are. Traditionally, it's the unemployment rate jumping up a lot. People are keeping a close eye on the early signs of that. The other one that I'm keeping a close eye on is is consumption, retail spending. And in particular, I've been watching the normally very dull earnings reports from the companies, but I think the companies are being pretty explicit.

You know, they're not out there saying, you know, Trump this, Trump that. But they are saying pretty clearly we are ratcheting back our forecast for this year, particularly like a lot of the consumer facing places are really feeling it.

You know, they're not out there saying, you know, Trump this, Trump that. But they are saying pretty clearly we are ratcheting back our forecast for this year, particularly like a lot of the consumer facing places are really feeling it.

You know, they're not out there saying, you know, Trump this, Trump that. But they are saying pretty clearly we are ratcheting back our forecast for this year, particularly like a lot of the consumer facing places are really feeling it.

It's really been almost a one-to-one reaction to the tariff plans. Initially, there was the huge rally, this belief Trump's coming back, we're going to be in the boom time. He's talking about deregulation.

It's really been almost a one-to-one reaction to the tariff plans. Initially, there was the huge rally, this belief Trump's coming back, we're going to be in the boom time. He's talking about deregulation.

It's really been almost a one-to-one reaction to the tariff plans. Initially, there was the huge rally, this belief Trump's coming back, we're going to be in the boom time. He's talking about deregulation.

He's talking about tax cuts. For everybody, they're in there, they're waiting for you to vote. But then every single day since the election, he would mention tariffs.

He's talking about tax cuts. For everybody, they're in there, they're waiting for you to vote. But then every single day since the election, he would mention tariffs.