Heather Long

Stephen Myron, Governor Waller, they are flagging concerns in the labor market and saying, you know, we don't want the labor market to weaken further from here.

But interestingly, you heard Chris Waller come out and say, look, we don't have to necessarily be in a rush.

You heard John Williams today also saying, you know, there's not necessarily an urgency to cut again.

And so I think a pause in January is very much on the table.

Yeah, it's not exactly an easy time at the Fed.

And I think you layer on top of that one other big issue that's going on, or really two.

How do you read AI's impact on this economy?

And how do you read the big...

decline in immigration that we're living through this year.

And so certainly I'm very concerned about what I'm seeing in the labor market, as many Fed leaders have been.

But you can make a case that most of the reason that there's no hiring right now is because there simply aren't enough workers.

And

We have an aging population and a big decline in immigration right now.

But I will say what troubles me, I'm almost ready to call this a hiring recession.

And that is just how many industries over the past six months are in negative job loss, layoff territory, mining and logging, manufacturing, wholesale trade, transport and warehouse, information, financial services, professional and business services.

of course, government.

That's not just, you know, one or two industries that are cyclically in a downturn.

That's more and more of the economy.

Yeah.

I mean, I think that's going to be a big question going forward.