Heather Long

you get these feelings that we're back to that dreaded summer of 2022 when inflation really spiked.

That's the last time we really saw gas and oil in that $100 a barrel mark.

And so that's, I think, what you're really worried about, whether you're the Federal Reserve or whether you're a corporation trying to assess this, is

If we get to a place where companies and consumers really start to change their assessment of what they think the next several months are going to be, it's not happening yet.

Yeah, that's a really good point.

The flip side of that is that we had an oversupply, arguably, of oil and gas in the market coming into this, and that most other parts of the economy were pretty well supplied.

So you're starting from a much better base than, say, what happened in 2022 when we were coming off a period of

where there still wasn't enough supply of cabinets or toasters or auto parts or whatever.

But you're right.

Again, if this is something that lasts for months, then you're back to 2022.

Thanks, Guy.

Happy Friday.

Yeah, it's a hard time to be an economist.

You can make a prediction on Friday that could be obsolete by Monday.

So don't forget private credit is also in the mix there.

I mean, look, is it higher than six months ago?

I think it's hard to say it's really come down a lot.

And it's no surprise that we're in a hiring recession, that companies are pretty hesitant to hire an environment like this and hesitant to invest much outside of artificial intelligence.

But let me throw one more interesting twist in the mix, Kristen.

You know, look, 2026 from an economic perspective, it kind of looks like a toddler on a sugar high.