Heather Long

There's just a lot of things that are juicing the economy up right now.

The tax refunds, the lower interest rates.

We're at a four-year low for the mortgage rates at Navy Federal.

We're seeing a refinance boom, which is freeing up a couple hundred dollars for people who can refi.

We're probably going to see some tariff refunds at some point.

And so it looks pretty good in 2026.

But the question is, what happens to the toddler after the sugar high?

And I think in a lot of corporate suites, that's where that uncertainty is really there.

You can think 2026 looks pretty good, but just 2027, what happens after that high?

Well, the one thing that's really still powering this economy is consumer spending.

And so the health of the consumer is top of mind, I think, for the vast majority of economists right now.

And that's another one of these questions of things look a little bit better, despite a lot of headlines, obviously a lot of credit card debt.

You still see and very gloomy consumer confidence.

You still see people spending and they're still going out to restaurants and entertainment.

They're still spending on a lot of core goods.

And so that's what really seems to be holding on for now.

And looks like 2026 could be pretty good.

But strain strain will return at the end of the year.

There are not more tax large tax refunds coming.

In 2026, yes.