Heather Long

Goldman Sachs still pretty conservative around 20 to 25%. But everyone agrees the recession risks have really gone up.

Goldman Sachs still pretty conservative around 20 to 25%. But everyone agrees the recession risks have really gone up.

Goldman Sachs still pretty conservative around 20 to 25%. But everyone agrees the recession risks have really gone up.

I'm Heather Long, an economic columnist at The Washington Post.

I'm Heather Long, an economic columnist at The Washington Post.

I'm Heather Long, an economic columnist at The Washington Post.

Yes. Yes, there are. Traditionally, it's the unemployment rate jumping up a lot. People are keeping a close eye on the early signs of that. The other one that I'm keeping a close eye on is is consumption, retail spending. And in particular, I've been watching the normally very dull earnings reports from the companies, but I think the companies are being pretty explicit.

Yes. Yes, there are. Traditionally, it's the unemployment rate jumping up a lot. People are keeping a close eye on the early signs of that. The other one that I'm keeping a close eye on is is consumption, retail spending. And in particular, I've been watching the normally very dull earnings reports from the companies, but I think the companies are being pretty explicit.

Yes. Yes, there are. Traditionally, it's the unemployment rate jumping up a lot. People are keeping a close eye on the early signs of that. The other one that I'm keeping a close eye on is is consumption, retail spending. And in particular, I've been watching the normally very dull earnings reports from the companies, but I think the companies are being pretty explicit.

You know, they're not out there saying, you know, Trump this, Trump that. But they are saying pretty clearly we are ratcheting back our forecast for this year, particularly like a lot of the consumer facing places are really feeling it.

You know, they're not out there saying, you know, Trump this, Trump that. But they are saying pretty clearly we are ratcheting back our forecast for this year, particularly like a lot of the consumer facing places are really feeling it.

You know, they're not out there saying, you know, Trump this, Trump that. But they are saying pretty clearly we are ratcheting back our forecast for this year, particularly like a lot of the consumer facing places are really feeling it.

It's really been almost a one-to-one reaction to the tariff plans. Initially, there was the huge rally, this belief Trump's coming back, we're going to be in the boom time. He's talking about deregulation.

It's really been almost a one-to-one reaction to the tariff plans. Initially, there was the huge rally, this belief Trump's coming back, we're going to be in the boom time. He's talking about deregulation.

It's really been almost a one-to-one reaction to the tariff plans. Initially, there was the huge rally, this belief Trump's coming back, we're going to be in the boom time. He's talking about deregulation.

He's talking about tax cuts. For everybody, they're in there, they're waiting for you to vote. But then every single day since the election, he would mention tariffs.

He's talking about tax cuts. For everybody, they're in there, they're waiting for you to vote. But then every single day since the election, he would mention tariffs.

He's talking about tax cuts. For everybody, they're in there, they're waiting for you to vote. But then every single day since the election, he would mention tariffs.

And not just in passing. It was this tariffs are beautiful, tariffs are wonderful, tariffs are going to revolutionize America kind of message. Because tariffs are going to make us rich as hell. It's going to bring our country's Business is back that left us. And for a long time, Wall Street didn't take that seriously. But February, early February, so a hit. And he puts those tariffs.

And not just in passing. It was this tariffs are beautiful, tariffs are wonderful, tariffs are going to revolutionize America kind of message. Because tariffs are going to make us rich as hell. It's going to bring our country's Business is back that left us. And for a long time, Wall Street didn't take that seriously. But February, early February, so a hit. And he puts those tariffs.