Ian Bremmer

Don't talk as much about it.

Then you look at imminence.

Getting the story right and getting the timing wrong is a disaster in the marketplace, but it's also a real problem for policy.

I mean, I remember 10 years ago, I put out a tweet that said that I believed within 10 years time that the US would have a closer relationship with Iran than Saudi Arabia.

In part because Saudi Arabia is all about OPEC and oil production, and the US is a massive oil producer, and so Saudi Arabia would be more tilting towards China.

But in part because I believe that the Iranian government was not gonna last 10 years, and that if there was a revolution or a breakdown, that a new Iranian government would be radically more interested in engaging with the United States.

Now, I still think that that is likely over time,

but that that it wasn't 10 years i think the 10 years actually comes up in 2026 so maybe i still have a few months on this but it's very unlikely to now happen um the fact that when you talk about anything um intrinsically we all have a discount factor in our mind we all think well if it's going to happen in 10 or 20 or 30 years we don't care

You know, you have a 250 year lease on a home in the UK.

You feel like you functionally own it, even though you don't.

You actually don't have the whole title to it.

You're renting it.

Somebody else does.

And if it's going to happen tomorrow, you treat it as if it is real time.

And then you have impact.

And impact is why so much is made of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz and so much is made of Russia, Ukraine, because it affects the Europeans and it also affects global food in a way that Sudan, with lots and lots of people, far more humanitarian impact on the Sudanese than Russia, Ukraine on the Ukrainians or Gaza, Israel on the Palestinians.

And yet Sudan gets virtually no coverage.

And not only because there were no journalists there, but why aren't there any journalists there?

Because the knock on implications for other countries, both geopolitically, economically, in terms of human flows, all of these things just isn't very significant.

Now, if we actually valued all human beings as having equal importance,