Ian Bremmer

Might they be able to come after him individually?

So those are all things that would make it more likely that Putin would negotiate it in better faith, that he might be willing to actually engage more with Ukraine and bring us to a ceasefire.

Of course, there've been some meetings in the last 24 hours

we should come back and talk about that but i want to get to the second point because that that's what might make putin feel like he needs to engage more that's the optimistic point but there's a pessimistic point which is putin has to also ask himself why is it that the europeans have been willing

to continue to provide more and more weapons and allow the Ukrainians to strike deep inside Russia.

And, you know, there's some debate over whether or not Trump knew was told in advance by Zelensky that these strikes were going to occur.

I actually think Trump did know.

I think first of all, the Ukrainians have shown that they really need that intelligence.

And also the Ukrainians have capitulated to Trump because they know they can't anger him that much.

So, you know, you've seen that the Ukrainians accepted without any conditions

a 30-day ceasefire because Trump demanded it.

They accepted his critical minerals deal and pushed it through their own parliament, even though they were deeply uncomfortable because Trump demanded it.

I have a hard time seeing Ukraine going ahead with these strikes and surprising Trump.

I do, especially because they came right after Trump was really angry and displayed that because Putin was engaging in all of these strikes against Kiev, killing all of these civilians, and Trump came out saying that.

So if you're Putin,

you see that NATO seems to be very comfortable allowing not only giving Ukraine all of these weapons and this intelligence that's facilitating Ukraine to take actions against Russia's strategic nuclear forces.

So if you're Putin, what have you done wrong?

that has allowed NATO to persist in their belief that they can get away with that.

And here, the issue is something that we shouldn't be comfortable with, which is that Putin has to be thinking that he has not at all effectively deterred NATO.

He has made them think that he is weak, that he won't respond adequately to them, that when he threatens Sweden and Finland and says that if you join NATO, there will be hell to pay, and then they join NATO and he does nothing, he looks weak.