Ian Bremmer

And the Iranians, the estimates are they're going to end up making like $14 billion on the back of that.

And that's if the sanctions that have been lifted snap back in 30 days and no presumption that's actually going to happen with the same regime.

And we know what they're likely to do with the money because the regime hasn't been removed.

And so that's a real problem.

Where I see this going is I think there have been two big places of major overreach

that have been unilaterally brought by Trump on the Americans internationally.

The first was Liberation Day, China.

The United States puts tariffs on every country around the world using IEPO, which they didn't really have the legal right to do, as we've seen from the Supreme Court.

A lot of countries, very, very concerned about that, back down, say, Mr. Trump, what can we do?

We'll cut a deal with you.

The Chinese don't.

The Chinese say, actually, we've got real leverage.

Our leverage, even though you're a bigger economy than we are,

Our leverage is critical minerals and we will take the pain because we can outlast you.

We are more patient than you are.

We can take more pain than you will.

And as a consequence, we're going to force you to the table and we're going to have more influence.

And I've seen that happen.

Over the last year, China has more leverage with the United States now in bilateral dealing because the Chinese showed the Americans that they are more prepared to take long-term economic pain than the Americans are or than Trump is.

And I think that what the Iranians have just shown on the Strait of Hormuz is a similar strategy, much smaller scale.